Statistics / Football / Romania. Liga I / FCSB vs Farul Constanta

FCSB vs Farul Constanta Statistics & Analysis

FCSB FCSB
Aug 03, 2026 - 18:30
2 2.54
2 1.14
xG Accuracy: 68%
Farul Constanta Farul Constanta
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 FCSB Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 2-0, 3-1, 1-1, 3-0 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 28, 2026 · 03:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2132879

Closing Odds 1.6
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · FCSB 2–2 Farul Constanta
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices FCSB (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 14.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
FCSB (1X2) 66.7 59.5 +7.3
Draw (1X2) 19.1 21.9 -2.8
Farul Constanta (1X2) 14.2 18.7 -4.5
Over 2.5 goals 71.1 56.2 +14.9
Under 2.5 goals 28.9 43.8 -14.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 71.1% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 56.2%. The difference — about 14.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
FCSB (1X2) 1.6 1.6 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.35 4.35 0.0
Farul Constanta (1X2) 5.09 5.09 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.7 1.7 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.18 2.18 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga I
  • Fixture: FCSB vs Farul Constanta
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-03 18:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 66.7% · Draw 19.1% · Away 14.2%
  • xG (showing): FCSB 2.54 — Farul Constanta 1.14 (total xG ≈ 3.68)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 71.1% · Implied: 59.0% · Probability edge: +12.1 pts · Est. EV: +18.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 63.6% · No 36.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (9.3%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 24, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for FCSB & Farul Constanta!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Liga I Liga I — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Rapid 10 6 3 1 21
2 Universitatea Craiova 10 6 2 2 20
3 Dinamo Bucuresti 9 6 2 1 20
4 Petrolul Ploiesti 9 5 1 3 16
5 Farul Constanta 9 3 5 1 14
6 CFR 1907 Cluj 9 4 1 4 13
7 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 10 3 4 3 13
8 Universitatea Cluj 8 4 0 4 12
9 Uta Arad 10 3 3 4 12
10 FCSB 10 3 3 4 12
11 FC Botosani 10 2 5 3 11
12 Arges Pitesti 10 3 2 5 11
13 Corvinul Hunedoara 9 2 4 3 10
14 Oţelul 9 2 4 3 10
15 FC Voluntari 9 2 2 5 8
16 Csikszereda 9 0 1 8 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Universitatea Craiova 10 24 9 +15 20
2 Dinamo Bucuresti 9 19 7 +12 20
3 CFR 1907 Cluj 9 15 14 +1 13
4 Rapid 10 14 6 +8 21
5 Farul Constanta 9 14 10 +4 14
6 FC Botosani 10 14 12 +2 11
7 Uta Arad 10 14 15 -1 12
8 FCSB 10 13 17 -4 12
9 Universitatea Cluj 8 12 13 -1 12
10 Petrolul Ploiesti 9 11 12 -1 16
11 Oţelul 9 9 12 -3 10
12 FC Voluntari 9 9 20 -11 8
13 Corvinul Hunedoara 9 8 7 +1 10
14 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 10 7 10 -3 13
15 Arges Pitesti 10 6 10 -4 11
16 Csikszereda 9 6 21 -15 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Rapid 10 4.0 1.6 +2.4 21
2 Farul Constanta 9 1.7 1.0 +0.7 14
3 Dinamo Bucuresti 9 3.6 3.0 +0.6 20
4 FCSB 10 1.9 1.4 +0.5 12
5 FC Voluntari 9 2.9 2.6 +0.3 8
6 Csikszereda 9 1.3 1.3 0.0 1
7 FC Botosani 10 2.6 2.9 -0.3 11
8 Arges Pitesti 10 1.4 1.9 -0.5 11
9 Universitatea Cluj 8 1.0 1.7 -0.7 12
10 Petrolul Ploiesti 9 1.4 2.2 -0.8 16
11 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 10 1.4 3.6 -2.2 13
12 Universitatea Craiova 10 — — — 20
13 CFR 1907 Cluj 9 — — — 13
14 Uta Arad 10 — — — 12
15 Corvinul Hunedoara 9 — — — 10
16 Oţelul 9 — — — 10
Liga I Romania. Liga I Predictions