Teplice U19 vs Slavia Praha U19 Statistics & Analysis

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Teplice U19

Sep 16, 2026 - 09:00

1 1.39

1 1.21

xG Accuracy: 85%

Slavia Praha U19

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Teplice U19 Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 10, 2026 · 01:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7845392

Closing Odds 1.4

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Teplice U19 1–1 Slavia Praha U19

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.59 percentage points on Slavia Praha U19 (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 12.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Teplice U19 (1X2)	39.5	61.5	-22.0
Draw (1X2)	29.5	16.9	+12.6
Slavia Praha U19 (1X2)	31.0	21.6	+9.4

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.5% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 16.9%. The difference — about 12.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Teplice U19 (1X2)	1.38	1.4	-0.6
Draw (1X2)	5.06	5.09	-0.0
Slavia Praha U19 (1X2)	4.07	3.98	+0.6

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: 1. Liga U19
Fixture: Teplice U19 vs Slavia Praha U19
Kickoff: 2026-09-16 09:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
xG (showing): Teplice U19 1.39 — Slavia Praha U19 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.6%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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