Slovácko U19 vs Mladá Boleslav U19 Statistics & Analysis

Slovácko U19

Sep 19, 2026 - 11:00

0 1.16

1 1.44

xG Accuracy: 64%

Mladá Boleslav U19

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Mladá Boleslav U19 Mladá Boleslav U19 ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8659668

Closing Odds 4.29

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Mladá Boleslav U19 win · Slovácko U19 0–1 Mladá Boleslav U19

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 8.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Slovácko U19 (1X2)	28.8	35.0	-6.2
Draw (1X2)	29.3	20.7	+8.6
Mladá Boleslav U19 (1X2)	41.9	44.2	-2.4

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.3% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 20.7%. The difference — about 8.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Slovácko U19 (1X2)	2.54	2.54
Draw (1X2)	4.29	4.29
Mladá Boleslav U19 (1X2)	2.01	2.01

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: 1. Liga U19
Fixture: Slovácko U19 vs Mladá Boleslav U19
Kickoff: 2026-09-19 11:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 28.8% · Draw 29.3% · Away 41.9%
xG (showing): Slovácko U19 1.16 — Mladá Boleslav U19 1.44 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
Model: 46.0% · Implied: 27.8% · Probability edge: +18.2 pts · Est. EV: +61.0%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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