Opava U19 vs České Budějovice U19 Statistics & Analysis

Opava U19

Sep 09, 2026 - 08:00

4 1.26

2 1.34

xG Accuracy: 39%

České Budějovice U19

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 České Budějovice U19 Opava U19 ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 01:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3342891

Closing Odds 4.2

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Opava U19 win · Opava U19 4–2 České Budějovice U19

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 8.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Opava U19 (1X2)	33.4	39.8	-6.4
Draw (1X2)	29.6	21.0	+8.6
České Budějovice U19 (1X2)	37.0	39.2	-2.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.6% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 21.0%. The difference — about 8.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Opava U19 (1X2)	2.22	2.22
Draw (1X2)	4.2	4.2
České Budějovice U19 (1X2)	2.25	2.25

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: 1. Liga U19
Fixture: Opava U19 vs České Budějovice U19
Kickoff: 2026-09-09 08:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
xG (showing): Opava U19 1.26 — České Budějovice U19 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 27.9% · Probability edge: +23.9 pts · Est. EV: +85.4%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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