Statistics / Football / Northern-Ireland. Championship / Institute vs H&W Welders

Institute vs H&W Welders Statistics & Analysis

Institute Institute
Oct 10, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.35
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 49%
H&W Welders H&W Welders
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Institute Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 02:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13226719

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Institute 0–0 H&W Welders
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Championship
  • Fixture: Institute vs H&W Welders
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Institute 1.35 — H&W Welders 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 36.8% · Probability edge: +15.1 pts · Est. EV: +29.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Championship Championship — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Annagh United 11 6 4 1 22
2 Glenavon FC 11 6 3 2 21
3 Newington Youth 11 6 2 3 20
4 Queen's University 11 6 1 4 19
5 Newry City AFC 11 5 3 3 18
6 Warrenpoint Town 11 5 2 4 17
7 Institute 11 5 2 4 17
8 Ballinamallard United 11 5 2 4 17
9 H&W Welders 11 5 1 5 16
10 Ards 11 4 3 4 15
11 Moyola Park 11 4 2 5 14
12 Loughgall 11 3 4 4 13
13 Dundela 11 2 5 4 11
14 Strabane Athletic 11 2 3 6 9
15 Rathfriland 11 3 0 8 9
16 Armagh City 11 0 5 6 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Glenavon FC 11 26 14 +12 21
2 Annagh United 11 25 14 +11 22
3 Newington Youth 11 24 20 +4 20
4 Queen's University 11 20 8 +12 19
5 Institute 11 20 17 +3 17
6 Warrenpoint Town 11 19 15 +4 17
7 Newry City AFC 11 19 19 0 18
8 Dundela 11 19 23 -4 11
9 H&W Welders 11 18 16 +2 16
10 Ballinamallard United 11 17 16 +1 17
11 Loughgall 11 15 21 -6 13
12 Ards 11 14 13 +1 15
13 Moyola Park 11 12 21 -9 14
14 Rathfriland 11 11 23 -12 9
15 Strabane Athletic 11 10 20 -10 9
16 Armagh City 11 9 18 -9 5
Championship Northern-Ireland. Championship Predictions