Statistics / Football / Northern-Ireland. Championship / Moyola Park vs Strabane Athletic

Moyola Park vs Strabane Athletic Statistics & Analysis

Moyola Park Moyola Park
Aug 11, 2026 - 18:45
1 1.32
3 1.28
xG Accuracy: 57%
Strabane Athletic Strabane Athletic
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Moyola Park Strabane Athletic ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 02:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3019458

Closing Odds 1.95
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Strabane Athletic win · Moyola Park 1–3 Strabane Athletic
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Strabane Athletic (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 9.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Moyola Park (1X2) 36.1 45.5 -9.5
Draw (1X2) 29.7 25.2 +4.4
Strabane Athletic (1X2) 34.2 29.2 +5.0
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 57.2 -9.0
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 42.8 +9.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 42.8%. The difference — about 9.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Moyola Park (1X2) 1.95 1.95 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.52 3.52 0.0
Strabane Athletic (1X2) 3.04 3.04 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.61 1.61 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.15 2.15 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Championship
  • Fixture: Moyola Park vs Strabane Athletic
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-11 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Moyola Park 1.32 — Strabane Athletic 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 43.7% · Probability edge: +8.1 pts · Est. EV: +12.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Championship Championship — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Glenavon FC 9 5 2 2 17
2 Newington Youth 8 5 2 1 17
3 Annagh United 8 5 2 1 17
4 Queen's University 8 5 1 2 16
5 H&W Welders 9 5 0 4 15
6 Newry City AFC 9 4 3 2 15
7 Ballinamallard United 8 4 1 3 13
8 Warrenpoint Town 9 4 1 4 13
9 Institute 8 4 1 3 13
10 Ards 8 3 2 3 11
11 Loughgall 9 2 4 3 10
12 Dundela 8 1 5 2 8
13 Moyola Park 8 2 2 4 8
14 Strabane Athletic 8 1 2 5 5
15 Armagh City 8 0 4 4 4
16 Rathfriland 9 1 0 8 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Glenavon FC 9 22 13 +9 17
2 Newington Youth 8 20 11 +9 17
3 Queen's University 8 18 6 +12 16
4 Annagh United 8 18 12 +6 17
5 H&W Welders 9 17 13 +4 15
6 Warrenpoint Town 9 17 14 +3 13
7 Dundela 8 16 18 -2 8
8 Ballinamallard United 8 15 11 +4 13
9 Newry City AFC 9 15 16 -1 15
10 Institute 8 13 12 +1 13
11 Loughgall 9 12 18 -6 10
12 Ards 8 11 11 0 11
13 Moyola Park 8 9 17 -8 8
14 Strabane Athletic 8 9 19 -10 5
15 Armagh City 8 8 14 -6 4
16 Rathfriland 9 6 21 -15 3
Championship Northern-Ireland. Championship Predictions