Statistics / Football / England. League Two / York vs Northampton

York vs Northampton Statistics & Analysis

York York
Oct 10, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.53
1 1.47
xG Accuracy: 76%
Northampton Northampton
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 York Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 02:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13226221

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · York 1–1 Northampton
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: League Two
  • Fixture: York vs Northampton
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.6% · Draw 26.4% · Away 28.0%
  • xG (showing): York 1.53 — Northampton 1.47 (total xG ≈ 3.0)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 61.8% · Implied: 51.3% · Probability edge: +10.5 pts · Est. EV: +13.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
League Two League Two — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Salford City 9 5 1 3 16
2 Barnet 7 4 3 0 15
3 Crewe 9 3 6 0 15
4 Cheltenham 9 4 3 2 15
5 Bristol Rovers 9 5 0 4 15
6 York 8 4 2 2 14
7 Walsall 8 3 5 0 14
8 Chesterfield 9 4 2 3 14
9 Grimsby 9 3 4 2 13
10 Gillingham 9 3 4 2 13
11 Rochdale 9 4 1 4 13
12 Tranmere 9 2 5 2 11
13 Swindon Town 9 3 2 4 11
14 Shrewsbury 9 3 2 4 11
15 Newport County 9 2 4 3 10
16 Accrington ST 9 2 4 3 10
17 Rotherham 9 2 4 3 10
18 Fleetwood Town 9 2 4 3 10
19 Colchester 8 2 4 2 10
20 Exeter City 9 2 3 4 9
21 Oldham 8 2 1 5 7
22 Northampton 7 1 3 3 6
23 Port Vale 7 1 2 4 5
24 Crawley Town 7 1 1 5 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Barnet 7 17 10 +7 15
2 York 8 16 10 +6 14
3 Cheltenham 9 16 14 +2 15
4 Chesterfield 9 15 12 +3 14
5 Bristol Rovers 9 14 14 0 15
6 Salford City 9 13 10 +3 16
7 Grimsby 9 13 10 +3 13
8 Accrington ST 9 13 14 -1 10
9 Tranmere 9 12 12 0 11
10 Newport County 9 12 12 0 10
11 Walsall 8 11 5 +6 14
12 Crewe 9 11 7 +4 15
13 Gillingham 9 11 9 +2 13
14 Rotherham 9 11 12 -1 10
15 Rochdale 9 10 11 -1 13
16 Colchester 8 10 12 -2 10
17 Fleetwood Town 9 9 10 -1 10
18 Swindon Town 9 9 13 -4 11
19 Oldham 8 9 13 -4 7
20 Shrewsbury 9 9 14 -5 11
21 Crawley Town 7 6 13 -7 4
22 Exeter City 9 5 6 -1 9
23 Northampton 7 3 6 -3 6
24 Port Vale 7 3 9 -6 5
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Accrington ST 9 3.6 0.6 +3.0 10
2 Port Vale 7 4.5 2.1 +2.4 5
3 Crewe 9 3.0 1.5 +1.5 15
4 Shrewsbury 9 3.7 2.5 +1.2 11
5 Fleetwood Town 9 3.6 2.4 +1.2 10
6 Walsall 8 4.3 3.4 +0.9 14
7 York 8 3.9 3.0 +0.9 14
8 Newport County 9 1.6 0.7 +0.9 10
9 Barnet 7 4.7 4.0 +0.7 15
10 Bristol Rovers 9 4.2 3.5 +0.7 15
11 Tranmere 9 3.3 2.6 +0.7 11
12 Rotherham 9 3.3 2.6 +0.7 10
13 Oldham 8 1.7 1.5 +0.2 7
14 Northampton 7 2.6 2.6 0.0 6
15 Crawley Town 7 2.8 3.2 -0.4 4
16 Salford City 9 2.6 3.1 -0.5 16
17 Gillingham 9 3.6 4.6 -1.0 13
18 Chesterfield 9 3.0 4.0 -1.0 14
19 Exeter City 9 2.4 3.5 -1.1 9
20 Rochdale 9 0.6 2.1 -1.5 13
21 Swindon Town 9 1.0 2.9 -1.9 11
22 Cheltenham 9 1.0 3.0 -2.0 15
23 Grimsby 9 2.5 4.7 -2.2 13
24 Colchester 8 1.2 4.7 -3.5 10