Statistics / Football / England. League Two / Cheltenham vs Salford City

Cheltenham vs Salford City Statistics & Analysis

Cheltenham Cheltenham
Oct 10, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.36
2 1.64
xG Accuracy: 62%
Salford City Salford City
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Salford City Salford City ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 1-0 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 02:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13225868

Closing Odds 1.72
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Salford City win · Cheltenham 0–2 Salford City
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Cheltenham (1X2), Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Cheltenham (1X2) by about 6.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Cheltenham (1X2) 28.1 21.2 +6.9
Draw (1X2) 26.2 22.6 +3.6
Salford City (1X2) 45.7 56.2 -10.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 28.1% on Cheltenham (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 21.2%. The difference — about 6.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: betinasia

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Cheltenham (1X2) 4.56 4.56 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.27 4.27 0.0
Salford City (1X2) 1.72 1.72 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: League Two
  • Fixture: Cheltenham vs Salford City
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 28.1% · Draw 26.2% · Away 45.7%
  • xG (showing): Cheltenham 1.36 — Salford City 1.64 (total xG ≈ 3.0)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 61.4% · Implied: 56.4% · Probability edge: +5.0 pts · Est. EV: +2.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
League Two League Two — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Salford City 9 5 1 3 16
2 Barnet 7 4 3 0 15
3 Crewe 9 3 6 0 15
4 Cheltenham 9 4 3 2 15
5 Bristol Rovers 9 5 0 4 15
6 York 8 4 2 2 14
7 Walsall 8 3 5 0 14
8 Chesterfield 9 4 2 3 14
9 Grimsby 9 3 4 2 13
10 Gillingham 9 3 4 2 13
11 Rochdale 9 4 1 4 13
12 Tranmere 9 2 5 2 11
13 Swindon Town 9 3 2 4 11
14 Shrewsbury 9 3 2 4 11
15 Newport County 9 2 4 3 10
16 Accrington ST 9 2 4 3 10
17 Rotherham 9 2 4 3 10
18 Fleetwood Town 9 2 4 3 10
19 Colchester 8 2 4 2 10
20 Exeter City 9 2 3 4 9
21 Oldham 8 2 1 5 7
22 Northampton 7 1 3 3 6
23 Port Vale 7 1 2 4 5
24 Crawley Town 7 1 1 5 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Barnet 7 17 10 +7 15
2 York 8 16 10 +6 14
3 Cheltenham 9 16 14 +2 15
4 Chesterfield 9 15 12 +3 14
5 Bristol Rovers 9 14 14 0 15
6 Salford City 9 13 10 +3 16
7 Grimsby 9 13 10 +3 13
8 Accrington ST 9 13 14 -1 10
9 Tranmere 9 12 12 0 11
10 Newport County 9 12 12 0 10
11 Walsall 8 11 5 +6 14
12 Crewe 9 11 7 +4 15
13 Gillingham 9 11 9 +2 13
14 Rotherham 9 11 12 -1 10
15 Rochdale 9 10 11 -1 13
16 Colchester 8 10 12 -2 10
17 Fleetwood Town 9 9 10 -1 10
18 Swindon Town 9 9 13 -4 11
19 Oldham 8 9 13 -4 7
20 Shrewsbury 9 9 14 -5 11
21 Crawley Town 7 6 13 -7 4
22 Exeter City 9 5 6 -1 9
23 Northampton 7 3 6 -3 6
24 Port Vale 7 3 9 -6 5
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Accrington ST 9 3.6 0.6 +3.0 10
2 Port Vale 7 4.5 2.1 +2.4 5
3 Crewe 9 3.0 1.5 +1.5 15
4 Shrewsbury 9 3.7 2.5 +1.2 11
5 Fleetwood Town 9 3.6 2.4 +1.2 10
6 Walsall 8 4.3 3.4 +0.9 14
7 York 8 3.9 3.0 +0.9 14
8 Newport County 9 1.6 0.7 +0.9 10
9 Barnet 7 4.7 4.0 +0.7 15
10 Bristol Rovers 9 4.2 3.5 +0.7 15
11 Tranmere 9 3.3 2.6 +0.7 11
12 Rotherham 9 3.3 2.6 +0.7 10
13 Oldham 8 1.7 1.5 +0.2 7
14 Northampton 7 2.6 2.6 0.0 6
15 Crawley Town 7 2.8 3.2 -0.4 4
16 Salford City 9 2.6 3.1 -0.5 16
17 Gillingham 9 3.6 4.6 -1.0 13
18 Chesterfield 9 3.0 4.0 -1.0 14
19 Exeter City 9 2.4 3.5 -1.1 9
20 Rochdale 9 0.6 2.1 -1.5 13
21 Swindon Town 9 1.0 2.9 -1.9 11
22 Cheltenham 9 1.0 3.0 -2.0 15
23 Grimsby 9 2.5 4.7 -2.2 13
24 Colchester 8 1.2 4.7 -3.5 10