Statistics / Football / England. Championship / Burnley vs Charlton

Burnley vs Charlton Statistics & Analysis

Burnley Burnley
Oct 13, 2026 - 18:45
2 1.25
2 1.07
xG Accuracy: 63%
Charlton Charlton
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Burnley Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 07, 2026 · 02:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13665932

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Burnley 2–2 Charlton
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Championship
  • Fixture: Burnley vs Charlton
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-13 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.5% · Draw 30.6% · Away 27.9%
  • xG (showing): Burnley 1.25 — Charlton 1.07 (total xG ≈ 2.32)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 59.1% · Over 2.5 40.9%); BTTS No (Yes 48.6% · No 51.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 48.6% · No 51.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.1%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Championship Championship — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Swansea 10 7 2 1 23
2 Middlesbrough 10 6 3 1 21
3 West Ham 10 5 4 1 19
4 Birmingham 10 4 5 1 17
5 QPR 10 4 5 1 17
6 West Brom 10 5 2 3 17
7 Southampton 10 6 2 2 16
8 Stoke City 10 5 1 4 16
9 Blackburn 10 4 3 3 15
10 Wolves 9 4 2 3 14
11 Millwall 10 4 2 4 14
12 Bristol City 10 4 2 4 14
13 Charlton 10 3 5 2 14
14 Bolton 10 4 1 5 13
15 Sheffield Utd 10 3 3 4 12
16 Portsmouth 9 3 2 4 11
17 Wrexham 10 2 5 3 11
18 Lincoln 10 3 2 5 11
19 Cardiff 10 2 4 4 10
20 Norwich 10 3 0 7 9
21 Burnley 10 1 5 4 8
22 Watford 10 2 2 6 8
23 Derby 10 1 3 6 6
24 Preston 10 1 1 8 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 West Ham 10 29 12 +17 19
2 Southampton 10 21 10 +11 16
3 Middlesbrough 10 20 14 +6 21
4 Birmingham 10 17 11 +6 17
5 Stoke City 10 17 16 +1 16
6 Norwich 10 17 20 -3 9
7 Swansea 10 16 7 +9 23
8 Wolves 9 16 14 +2 14
9 Cardiff 10 16 15 +1 10
10 Millwall 10 16 16 0 14
11 QPR 10 15 9 +6 17
12 Blackburn 10 15 13 +2 15
13 Bolton 10 15 18 -3 13
14 Burnley 10 15 19 -4 8
15 Sheffield Utd 10 14 14 0 12
16 West Brom 10 12 10 +2 17
17 Portsmouth 9 12 13 -1 11
18 Bristol City 10 12 14 -2 14
19 Wrexham 10 11 15 -4 11
20 Charlton 10 10 13 -3 14
21 Derby 10 9 19 -10 6
22 Watford 10 8 19 -11 8
23 Preston 10 8 20 -12 4
24 Lincoln 10 7 17 -10 11
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Middlesbrough 10 15.1 7.5 +7.6 21
2 Southampton 10 12.6 5.9 +6.7 16
3 Wolves 9 12.8 7.4 +5.4 14
4 QPR 10 13.0 8.1 +4.9 17
5 Birmingham 10 13.7 9.0 +4.7 17
6 West Ham 10 10.8 6.7 +4.1 19
7 Swansea 10 9.7 5.9 +3.8 23
8 Wrexham 10 9.1 5.8 +3.3 11
9 Millwall 10 12.7 10.5 +2.2 14
10 Portsmouth 9 8.6 8.5 +0.1 11
11 Bolton 10 8.6 8.7 -0.1 13
12 Sheffield Utd 10 7.3 7.5 -0.2 12
13 West Brom 10 11.2 11.8 -0.6 17
14 Cardiff 10 11.4 12.8 -1.4 10
15 Burnley 10 8.8 10.6 -1.8 8
16 Bristol City 10 8.2 10.3 -2.1 14
17 Norwich 10 9.1 12.3 -3.2 9
18 Watford 10 7.6 10.8 -3.2 8
19 Charlton 10 8.8 12.1 -3.3 14
20 Derby 10 7.1 10.8 -3.7 6
21 Preston 10 4.3 8.9 -4.6 4
22 Lincoln 10 7.0 12.2 -5.2 11
23 Blackburn 10 5.6 11.4 -5.8 15
24 Stoke City 10 4.2 12.2 -8.0 16
Championship England. Championship Predictions