Statistics / Football / England. Championship / Watford vs Burnley

Watford vs Burnley Statistics & Analysis

Watford Watford
Oct 10, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.24
4 1.06
xG Accuracy: 32%
Burnley Burnley
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Watford Burnley ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 0-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 02:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13225763

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Burnley win · Watford 0–4 Burnley
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Championship
  • Fixture: Watford vs Burnley
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.2% · Draw 31.0% · Away 30.8%
  • xG (showing): Watford 1.24 — Burnley 1.06 (total xG ≈ 2.3)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 59.6% · Implied: 45.6% · Probability edge: +14.0 pts · Est. EV: +26.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 48.2% · No 51.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.2%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Championship Championship — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Swansea 8 5 2 1 17
2 West Ham 8 4 3 1 15
3 Middlesbrough 8 4 3 1 15
4 Wolves 7 4 2 1 14
5 West Brom 8 4 2 2 14
6 QPR 8 3 4 1 13
7 Stoke City 8 4 1 3 13
8 Bristol City 8 4 1 3 13
9 Charlton 8 3 3 2 12
10 Birmingham 8 2 5 1 11
11 Millwall 8 3 2 3 11
12 Lincoln 8 3 2 3 11
13 Southampton 8 4 2 2 10
14 Wrexham 8 2 4 2 10
15 Bolton 8 3 1 4 10
16 Blackburn 8 2 3 3 9
17 Norwich 8 3 0 5 9
18 Sheffield Utd 8 2 3 3 9
19 Portsmouth 7 2 2 3 8
20 Watford 8 2 2 4 8
21 Cardiff 8 1 4 3 7
22 Derby 8 1 2 5 5
23 Preston 8 1 1 6 4
24 Burnley 8 0 4 4 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 West Ham 8 22 11 +11 15
2 Southampton 8 19 10 +9 10
3 Middlesbrough 8 16 12 +4 15
4 Norwich 8 16 17 -1 9
5 Wolves 7 15 10 +5 14
6 Millwall 8 15 15 0 11
7 Swansea 8 13 6 +7 17
8 Stoke City 8 13 12 +1 13
9 Birmingham 8 12 11 +1 11
10 Blackburn 8 12 12 0 9
11 Bristol City 8 11 12 -1 13
12 Bolton 8 11 15 -4 10
13 QPR 8 10 7 +3 13
14 West Brom 8 10 8 +2 14
15 Cardiff 8 10 12 -2 7
16 Portsmouth 7 9 10 -1 8
17 Sheffield Utd 8 9 11 -2 9
18 Wrexham 8 9 12 -3 10
19 Burnley 8 9 17 -8 4
20 Preston 8 8 15 -7 4
21 Lincoln 8 7 8 -1 11
22 Charlton 8 7 10 -3 12
23 Watford 8 7 10 -3 8
24 Derby 8 7 14 -7 5
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Southampton 8 7.2 2.6 +4.6 10
2 Wolves 7 8.8 4.8 +4.0 14
3 Middlesbrough 8 9.8 5.9 +3.9 15
4 QPR 8 9.7 5.8 +3.9 13
5 Swansea 8 6.8 3.6 +3.2 17
6 Birmingham 8 10.1 7.3 +2.8 11
7 Wrexham 8 6.8 4.0 +2.8 10
8 Millwall 8 9.8 7.9 +1.9 11
9 West Ham 8 6.5 5.2 +1.3 15
10 Bolton 8 5.8 4.5 +1.3 10
11 Burnley 8 6.7 6.6 +0.1 4
12 Portsmouth 7 4.5 4.9 -0.4 8
13 Sheffield Utd 8 4.2 4.9 -0.7 9
14 Lincoln 8 5.8 7.0 -1.2 11
15 Blackburn 8 4.6 5.8 -1.2 9
16 Norwich 8 7.4 8.9 -1.5 9
17 Preston 8 3.0 4.7 -1.7 4
18 Cardiff 8 6.8 8.6 -1.8 7
19 Watford 8 3.3 5.8 -2.5 8
20 Charlton 8 5.4 8.1 -2.7 12
21 Derby 8 5.0 8.1 -3.1 5
22 Bristol City 8 5.6 8.9 -3.3 13
23 West Brom 8 6.6 10.6 -4.0 14
24 Stoke City 8 2.9 8.6 -5.7 13
Championship England. Championship Predictions