Statistics / Football / England. Championship / Southampton vs Portsmouth

Southampton vs Portsmouth Statistics & Analysis

Southampton Southampton
Oct 11, 2026 - 11:00
1 2.10
0 1.01
xG Accuracy: 56%
Portsmouth Portsmouth
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Southampton Southampton ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 2-0, 1-1, 1-0, 3-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 01:24 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13194919

Closing Odds 4.5
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Southampton win · Southampton 1–0 Portsmouth
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 2.02 percentage points on Portsmouth (1X2) between PRE10 and PRE5.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 1.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Southampton (1X2) 61.0 62.3 -1.3
Draw (1X2) 22.7 20.9 +1.8
Portsmouth (1X2) 16.3 16.8 -0.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 22.7% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 20.9%. The difference — about 1.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE5 · Book: bet365 → stake com

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Early and closing snapshots used different bookmakers — interpret movement with care.
Market Early (PRE10) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Southampton (1X2) 1.46 1.51 -0.9
Draw (1X2) 4.2 4.5 -1.1
Portsmouth (1X2) 6.25 5.6 +2.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Championship
  • Fixture: Southampton vs Portsmouth
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 61.0% · Draw 22.7% · Away 16.3%
  • xG (showing): Southampton 2.1 — Portsmouth 1.01 (total xG ≈ 3.11)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS No
  • Model: 43.0% · Implied: 42.3% · Probability edge: +0.7 pts · Est. EV: +2.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Championship Championship — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Swansea 10 7 2 1 23
2 Middlesbrough 10 6 3 1 21
3 West Ham 10 5 4 1 19
4 Birmingham 10 4 5 1 17
5 QPR 10 4 5 1 17
6 West Brom 10 5 2 3 17
7 Southampton 10 6 2 2 16
8 Stoke City 10 5 1 4 16
9 Blackburn 10 4 3 3 15
10 Wolves 9 4 2 3 14
11 Millwall 10 4 2 4 14
12 Bristol City 10 4 2 4 14
13 Charlton 10 3 5 2 14
14 Bolton 10 4 1 5 13
15 Sheffield Utd 10 3 3 4 12
16 Portsmouth 9 3 2 4 11
17 Wrexham 10 2 5 3 11
18 Lincoln 10 3 2 5 11
19 Cardiff 10 2 4 4 10
20 Norwich 10 3 0 7 9
21 Burnley 10 1 5 4 8
22 Watford 10 2 2 6 8
23 Derby 10 1 3 6 6
24 Preston 10 1 1 8 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 West Ham 10 29 12 +17 19
2 Southampton 10 21 10 +11 16
3 Middlesbrough 10 20 14 +6 21
4 Birmingham 10 17 11 +6 17
5 Stoke City 10 17 16 +1 16
6 Norwich 10 17 20 -3 9
7 Swansea 10 16 7 +9 23
8 Wolves 9 16 14 +2 14
9 Cardiff 10 16 15 +1 10
10 Millwall 10 16 16 0 14
11 QPR 10 15 9 +6 17
12 Blackburn 10 15 13 +2 15
13 Bolton 10 15 18 -3 13
14 Burnley 10 15 19 -4 8
15 Sheffield Utd 10 14 14 0 12
16 West Brom 10 12 10 +2 17
17 Portsmouth 9 12 13 -1 11
18 Bristol City 10 12 14 -2 14
19 Wrexham 10 11 15 -4 11
20 Charlton 10 10 13 -3 14
21 Derby 10 9 19 -10 6
22 Watford 10 8 19 -11 8
23 Preston 10 8 20 -12 4
24 Lincoln 10 7 17 -10 11
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Southampton 10 10.7 4.7 +6.0 16
2 Middlesbrough 10 12.3 6.5 +5.8 21
3 QPR 10 11.8 6.7 +5.1 17
4 Birmingham 10 12.4 7.8 +4.6 17
5 Wolves 9 11.0 6.4 +4.6 14
6 Swansea 10 8.7 4.7 +4.0 23
7 West Ham 10 9.6 5.7 +3.9 19
8 Wrexham 10 7.1 5.0 +2.1 11
9 Millwall 10 10.8 9.7 +1.1 14
10 Bolton 10 7.4 6.7 +0.7 13
11 Cardiff 10 10.5 10.0 +0.5 10
12 Portsmouth 9 7.3 8.1 -0.8 11
13 Sheffield Utd 10 6.0 6.9 -0.9 12
14 Burnley 10 7.8 8.8 -1.0 8
15 Bristol City 10 7.6 9.0 -1.4 14
16 Charlton 10 7.5 9.2 -1.7 14
17 Norwich 10 8.7 11.1 -2.4 9
18 Blackburn 10 4.7 7.7 -3.0 15
19 Preston 10 3.5 6.9 -3.4 4
20 West Brom 10 7.5 11.0 -3.5 17
21 Derby 10 6.1 10.1 -4.0 6
22 Lincoln 10 6.2 10.3 -4.1 11
23 Watford 10 4.7 9.5 -4.8 8
24 Stoke City 10 3.5 11.1 -7.6 16
Championship England. Championship Predictions