Statistics / Football / Russia. First League / Ural vs Torpedo Moskva

Ural vs Torpedo Moskva Statistics & Analysis

Ural Ural
Jul 13, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 64%
Torpedo Moskva Torpedo Moskva
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Ural Torpedo Moskva ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 18:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1624796

Closing Odds 2.17
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Torpedo Moskva win · Ural 0–1 Torpedo Moskva
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Torpedo Moskva (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Torpedo Moskva (1X2) by about 5.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Ural (1X2) 37.7 44.1 -6.3
Draw (1X2) 29.6 29.0 +0.6
Torpedo Moskva (1X2) 32.7 26.9 +5.7
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 42.6 +5.6
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 57.4 -5.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.7% on Torpedo Moskva (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 26.9%. The difference — about 5.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Ural (1X2) 2.17 2.17 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.3 3.3 0.0
Torpedo Moskva (1X2) 3.55 3.55 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.24 2.24 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.66 1.66 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: First League
  • Fixture: Ural vs Torpedo Moskva
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-13 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.7% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.7%
  • xG (showing): Ural 1.32 — Torpedo Moskva 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 47.1% · Probability edge: +7.4 pts · Est. EV: +9.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
First League First League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Nizhny Novgorod 10 8 1 1 25
2 Veles 10 7 1 2 22
3 Torpedo Moskva 9 6 1 2 19
4 FC Sochi 10 6 1 3 19
5 Ural 9 5 3 1 18
6 Spartak Kostroma 9 5 3 1 18
7 FC UFA 9 4 4 1 16
8 Shinnik Yaroslavl 9 3 5 1 14
9 FK Neftekhimik 10 4 0 6 12
10 Arsenal Tula 10 3 3 4 12
11 Rotor Volgograd 10 3 2 5 11
12 Volga Ulyanovsk 9 3 1 5 10
13 Enisey 9 2 4 3 10
14 Leningradets 9 2 3 4 9
15 Chelyabinsk 9 2 1 6 7
16 Tekstilshchik 10 1 3 6 6
17 KAMAZ 10 1 2 7 5
18 Ska-khabarovsk 9 1 0 8 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Nizhny Novgorod 10 28 13 +15 25
2 Torpedo Moskva 9 19 6 +13 19
3 FC Sochi 10 18 12 +6 19
4 Ural 9 16 4 +12 18
5 Veles 10 14 11 +3 22
6 Shinnik Yaroslavl 9 14 11 +3 14
7 Rotor Volgograd 10 14 14 0 11
8 Spartak Kostroma 9 13 8 +5 18
9 FC UFA 9 13 9 +4 16
10 Volga Ulyanovsk 9 12 14 -2 10
11 Enisey 9 11 14 -3 10
12 Chelyabinsk 9 9 16 -7 7
13 Arsenal Tula 10 9 17 -8 12
14 KAMAZ 10 9 18 -9 5
15 Ska-khabarovsk 9 8 20 -12 3
16 Leningradets 9 7 12 -5 9
17 FK Neftekhimik 10 7 13 -6 12
18 Tekstilshchik 10 6 15 -9 6
First League Russia. First League Predictions