Statistics / Football / Russia. First League / FK Neftekhimik vs Veles

FK Neftekhimik vs Veles Statistics & Analysis

FK Neftekhimik FK Neftekhimik
Jul 11, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.29
1 1.31
xG Accuracy: 64%
Veles Veles
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 FK Neftekhimik Veles ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 17:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1622363

Closing Odds 2.04
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Veles win · FK Neftekhimik 0–1 Veles
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Veles (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Veles (1X2) by about 9.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
FK Neftekhimik (1X2) 37.3 46.9 -9.6
Draw (1X2) 29.6 29.3 +0.3
Veles (1X2) 33.1 23.8 +9.3
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 41.1 +7.1
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 58.9 -7.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 33.1% on Veles (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 23.8%. The difference — about 9.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
FK Neftekhimik (1X2) 2.04 2.04 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.27 3.27 0.0
Veles (1X2) 4.02 4.02 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.32 2.32 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.62 1.62 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: First League
  • Fixture: FK Neftekhimik vs Veles
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-11 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.3% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.1%
  • xG (showing): FK Neftekhimik 1.29 — Veles 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 47.9% · Probability edge: +6.6 pts · Est. EV: +7.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
First League First League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Nizhny Novgorod 12 10 1 1 31
2 Spartak Kostroma 11 7 3 1 24
3 FC Sochi 12 7 2 3 23
4 Veles 12 7 2 3 23
5 Ural 11 6 4 1 22
6 Torpedo Moskva 11 6 2 3 20
7 Rotor Volgograd 12 5 2 5 17
8 FC UFA 11 4 5 2 17
9 Shinnik Yaroslavl 11 3 6 2 15
10 Enisey 11 3 4 4 13
11 Arsenal Tula 12 3 4 5 13
12 FK Neftekhimik 12 4 0 8 12
13 Volga Ulyanovsk 11 3 2 6 11
14 Chelyabinsk 11 3 2 6 11
15 Leningradets 11 2 4 5 10
16 KAMAZ 12 2 3 7 9
17 Tekstilshchik 12 1 4 7 7
18 Ska-khabarovsk 11 1 2 8 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Nizhny Novgorod 12 36 14 +22 31
2 Torpedo Moskva 11 21 9 +12 20
3 FC Sochi 12 21 14 +7 23
4 Rotor Volgograd 12 20 14 +6 17
5 Ural 11 18 5 +13 22
6 FC UFA 11 16 13 +3 17
7 Veles 12 16 14 +2 23
8 Spartak Kostroma 11 15 8 +7 24
9 Shinnik Yaroslavl 11 15 13 +2 15
10 Volga Ulyanovsk 11 14 17 -3 11
11 Enisey 11 14 19 -5 13
12 Chelyabinsk 11 12 18 -6 11
13 Arsenal Tula 12 12 22 -10 13
14 KAMAZ 12 11 19 -8 9
15 Ska-khabarovsk 11 11 23 -12 5
16 Leningradets 11 9 20 -11 10
17 Tekstilshchik 12 8 19 -11 7
18 FK Neftekhimik 12 7 15 -8 12