Ústí nad Orlicí vs Kolín Statistics & Analysis

Ústí nad Orlicí

Oct 04, 2026 - 14:00

2 1.32

1 1.28

xG Accuracy: 77%

Kolín

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Ústí nad Orlicí Ústí nad Orlicí ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11676576

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Ústí nad Orlicí win · Ústí nad Orlicí 2–1 Kolín

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: 4. liga - Divizie C
Fixture: Ústí nad Orlicí vs Kolín
Kickoff: 2026-10-04 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Ústí nad Orlicí 1.32 — Kolín 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

4. liga - Divizie C — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Vysoké Mýto	9	7	2	0	23
2	Kosmonosy	9	7	1	1	22
3	Přepeře	9	7	0	2	21
4	Ústí nad Orlicí	9	6	2	1	20
5	Turnov	9	5	1	3	16
6	Trutnov	9	5	1	3	16
7	Chlumec nad Cidlinou	9	5	1	3	16
8	Hlinsko	9	4	1	4	13
9	Kolín	9	3	3	3	12
10	Spartak Police n/Metují	9	4	0	5	12
11	Vykan	9	3	1	5	10
12	Dvůr Králové	9	3	1	5	10
13	Slavia Hradec Králové	9	3	1	5	10
14	Svitavy	9	1	2	6	5
15	Chrudim II	9	0	1	8	1
16	Letohrad	9	0	0	9	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Vysoké Mýto	9	29	14	+15	23
2	Kosmonosy	9	28	13	+15	22
3	Přepeře	9	27	10	+17	21
4	Turnov	9	23	16	+7	16
5	Ústí nad Orlicí	9	20	8	+12	20
6	Vykan	9	18	16	+2	10
7	Trutnov	9	17	12	+5	16
8	Chlumec nad Cidlinou	9	16	13	+3	16
9	Hlinsko	9	16	16	0	13
10	Spartak Police n/Metují	9	16	18	-2	12
11	Kolín	9	15	16	-1	12
12	Slavia Hradec Králové	9	15	20	-5	10
13	Chrudim II	9	12	39	-27	1
14	Letohrad	9	10	35	-25	0
15	Dvůr Králové	9	9	13	-4	10
16	Svitavy	9	8	20	-12	5