Statistics / Football / Czech-Republic. 4. liga - Divizie C / Dvůr Králové vs Ústí nad Orlicí

Dvůr Králové vs Ústí nad Orlicí Statistics & Analysis

Dvůr Králové Dvůr Králové
Sep 13, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 64%
Ústí nad Orlicí Ústí nad Orlicí
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Dvůr Králové Ústí nad Orlicí ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7446894

Closing Odds 1.6
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Ústí nad Orlicí win · Dvůr Králové 0–1 Ústí nad Orlicí
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 3.92 percentage points on Ústí nad Orlicí (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE5.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 17.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Dvůr Králové (1X2) 36.1 24.6 +11.5
Draw (1X2) 29.7 19.9 +9.8
Ústí nad Orlicí (1X2) 34.2 55.5 -21.3
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 65.9 -17.7
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 34.1 +17.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 34.1%. The difference — about 17.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Dvůr Králové (1X2) 3.23 3.61 -2.9
Draw (1X2) 4.24 4.47 -1.1
Ústí nad Orlicí (1X2) 1.72 1.6 +3.9
Over 2.5 goals 1.41 1.38 +1.2
Under 2.5 goals 2.59 2.67 -1.2

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 4. liga - Divizie C
  • Fixture: Dvůr Králové vs Ústí nad Orlicí
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Dvůr Králové 1.32 — Ústí nad Orlicí 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 34.2% · Probability edge: +17.6 pts · Est. EV: +39.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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4. liga - Divizie C 4. liga - Divizie C — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vysoké Mýto 8 6 2 0 20
2 Kosmonosy 8 6 1 1 19
3 Přepeře 8 6 0 2 18
4 Ústí nad Orlicí 8 5 2 1 17
5 Turnov 8 4 1 3 13
6 Trutnov 8 4 1 3 13
7 Hlinsko 8 4 1 3 13
8 Chlumec nad Cidlinou 8 4 1 3 13
9 Kolín 8 3 3 2 12
10 Vykan 8 3 1 4 10
11 Dvůr Králové 8 3 1 4 10
12 Slavia Hradec Králové 8 3 1 4 10
13 Spartak Police n/Metují 8 3 0 5 9
14 Svitavy 8 1 2 5 5
15 Chrudim II 8 0 1 7 1
16 Letohrad 8 0 0 8 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vysoké Mýto 8 27 14 +13 20
2 Kosmonosy 8 26 12 +14 19
3 Přepeře 8 24 9 +15 18
4 Turnov 8 19 15 +4 13
5 Ústí nad Orlicí 8 18 7 +11 17
6 Vykan 8 17 14 +3 10
7 Hlinsko 8 16 14 +2 13
8 Trutnov 8 15 11 +4 13
9 Chlumec nad Cidlinou 8 14 13 +1 13
10 Kolín 8 14 14 0 12
11 Slavia Hradec Králové 8 14 18 -4 10
12 Spartak Police n/Metují 8 12 18 -6 9
13 Chrudim II 8 11 35 -24 1
14 Letohrad 8 10 31 -21 0
15 Dvůr Králové 8 9 11 -2 10
16 Svitavy 8 7 17 -10 5
4. liga - Divizie C Czech-Republic. 4. liga - Divizie C Predictions