Statistics / Football / Czech-Republic. 4. liga - Divizie C / Vysoké Mýto vs Spartak Police n/Metují

Vysoké Mýto vs Spartak Police n/Metují Statistics & Analysis

Vysoké Mýto Vysoké Mýto
Aug 22, 2026 - 15:00
2 1.50
0 1.10
xG Accuracy: 64%
Spartak Police n/Metují Spartak Police n/Metují
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Vysoké Mýto Vysoké Mýto ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 2-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 02:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4232695

Closing Odds 1.4
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Vysoké Mýto win · Vysoké Mýto 2–0 Spartak Police n/Metují
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Spartak Police n/Metují (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 17.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Vysoké Mýto (1X2) 44.8 63.5 -18.7
Draw (1X2) 29.0 19.9 +9.0
Spartak Police n/Metují (1X2) 26.2 16.6 +9.6
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 65.5 -17.3
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 34.5 +17.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 34.5%. The difference — about 17.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Vysoké Mýto (1X2) 1.4 1.4 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.46 4.46 0.0
Spartak Police n/Metují (1X2) 5.35 5.35 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.39 1.39 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.64 2.64 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 4. liga - Divizie C
  • Fixture: Vysoké Mýto vs Spartak Police n/Metují
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-22 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 44.8% · Draw 29.0% · Away 26.2%
  • xG (showing): Vysoké Mýto 1.5 — Spartak Police n/Metují 1.1 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.4% · No 46.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.4% · No 46.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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4. liga - Divizie C 4. liga - Divizie C — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vysoké Mýto 8 6 2 0 20
2 Kosmonosy 8 6 1 1 19
3 Přepeře 8 6 0 2 18
4 Ústí nad Orlicí 8 5 2 1 17
5 Turnov 8 4 1 3 13
6 Trutnov 8 4 1 3 13
7 Hlinsko 8 4 1 3 13
8 Chlumec nad Cidlinou 8 4 1 3 13
9 Kolín 8 3 3 2 12
10 Vykan 8 3 1 4 10
11 Dvůr Králové 8 3 1 4 10
12 Slavia Hradec Králové 8 3 1 4 10
13 Spartak Police n/Metují 8 3 0 5 9
14 Svitavy 8 1 2 5 5
15 Chrudim II 8 0 1 7 1
16 Letohrad 8 0 0 8 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vysoké Mýto 8 27 14 +13 20
2 Kosmonosy 8 26 12 +14 19
3 Přepeře 8 24 9 +15 18
4 Turnov 8 19 15 +4 13
5 Ústí nad Orlicí 8 18 7 +11 17
6 Vykan 8 17 14 +3 10
7 Hlinsko 8 16 14 +2 13
8 Trutnov 8 15 11 +4 13
9 Chlumec nad Cidlinou 8 14 13 +1 13
10 Kolín 8 14 14 0 12
11 Slavia Hradec Králové 8 14 18 -4 10
12 Spartak Police n/Metují 8 12 18 -6 9
13 Chrudim II 8 11 35 -24 1
14 Letohrad 8 10 31 -21 0
15 Dvůr Králové 8 9 11 -2 10
16 Svitavy 8 7 17 -10 5
4. liga - Divizie C Czech-Republic. 4. liga - Divizie C Predictions