Hvězda Cheb vs Slovan Velvary Statistics & Analysis

Hvězda Cheb

Aug 21, 2026 - 16:00

3 1.32

4 1.28

xG Accuracy: 30%

Slovan Velvary

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Hvězda Cheb Slovan Velvary ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 15, 2026 · 01:29 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4026344

Closing Odds 1.85

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Slovan Velvary win · Hvězda Cheb 3–4 Slovan Velvary

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Hvězda Cheb (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 12.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Hvězda Cheb (1X2)	36.1	26.9	+9.2
Draw (1X2)	29.7	25.1	+4.6
Slovan Velvary (1X2)	34.2	48.1	-13.8
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	60.5	-12.3
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	39.5	+12.3

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 39.5%. The difference — about 12.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Hvězda Cheb (1X2)	3.31	3.31
Draw (1X2)	3.55	3.55
Slovan Velvary (1X2)	1.85	1.85
Over 2.5 goals	1.51	1.51
Under 2.5 goals	2.31	2.31

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: 4. liga - Divizie B
Fixture: Hvězda Cheb vs Slovan Velvary
Kickoff: 2026-08-21 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Hvězda Cheb 1.32 — Slovan Velvary 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 39.2% · Probability edge: +12.6 pts · Est. EV: +29.5%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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4. liga - Divizie B — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Sokol Hostouň	8	7	0	1	21
2	Chomutov	8	7	0	1	21
3	Baník Sokolov	8	5	0	3	15
4	Rapid Psáry	8	5	0	3	15
5	Újezd Praha 4	8	4	2	2	14
6	Slovan Velvary	8	4	1	3	13
7	Karlovy Vary	8	4	0	4	12
8	Brandýs nad Labem	8	4	0	4	12
9	Tempo Praha	8	3	1	4	10
10	Štětí	8	3	1	4	10
11	Slaný	8	2	2	4	8
12	Meteor Praha	7	2	1	4	7
13	Ostrov	8	2	1	5	7
14	Slavoj Vyšehrad	8	2	1	5	7
15	Hvězda Cheb	7	2	0	5	6
16	Ústí nad Labem II	8	1	2	5	5

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Sokol Hostouň	8	27	8	+19	21
2	Brandýs nad Labem	8	20	19	+1	12
3	Chomutov	8	18	5	+13	21
4	Baník Sokolov	8	18	8	+10	15
5	Rapid Psáry	8	18	10	+8	15
6	Karlovy Vary	8	18	15	+3	12
7	Slaný	8	16	13	+3	8
8	Újezd Praha 4	8	15	13	+2	14
9	Ostrov	8	14	22	-8	7
10	Tempo Praha	8	13	14	-1	10
11	Slovan Velvary	8	13	17	-4	13
12	Slavoj Vyšehrad	8	13	22	-9	7
13	Štětí	8	12	15	-3	10
14	Hvězda Cheb	7	12	23	-11	6
15	Ústí nad Labem II	8	8	24	-16	5
16	Meteor Praha	7	6	13	-7	7