Statistics / Football / Austria. Bundesliga / WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg

WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg Statistics & Analysis

WSG Wattens WSG Wattens
Aug 16, 2026 - 15:00
0 0.77
3 1.84
xG Accuracy: 59%
Red Bull Salzburg Red Bull Salzburg
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Red Bull Salzburg Red Bull Salzburg ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 0-2, 1-1, 1-2, 0-3 0-3 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 01:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3609074

Closing Odds 1.34
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Red Bull Salzburg win · WSG Wattens 0–3 Red Bull Salzburg
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices WSG Wattens (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 17.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
WSG Wattens (1X2) 13.1 11.5 +1.6
Draw (1X2) 22.5 16.6 +5.9
Red Bull Salzburg (1X2) 64.4 71.9 -7.5
Over 2.5 goals 48.4 65.9 -17.5
Under 2.5 goals 51.6 34.1 +17.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.6% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 34.1%. The difference — about 17.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
WSG Wattens (1X2) 8.41 8.41 0.0
Draw (1X2) 5.79 5.79 0.0
Red Bull Salzburg (1X2) 1.34 1.34 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.46 1.46 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.82 2.82 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Bundesliga
  • Fixture: WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-16 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 13.1% · Draw 22.5% · Away 64.4%
  • xG (showing): WSG Wattens 0.77 — Red Bull Salzburg 1.84 (total xG ≈ 2.61)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.6% · Implied: 35.0% · Probability edge: +16.6 pts · Est. EV: +45.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Bundesliga Bundesliga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Rapid Vienna 7 6 0 1 18
2 Red Bull Salzburg 7 5 2 0 17
3 Lask Linz 7 5 1 1 16
4 Sturm Graz 7 3 2 2 11
5 Ried 7 2 2 3 8
6 TSV Hartberg 7 2 2 3 8
7 WSG Wattens 7 2 2 3 8
8 Austria Lustenau 7 2 2 3 8
9 Grazer AK 7 2 2 3 8
10 Austria Vienna 7 2 1 4 7
11 Wolfsberger AC 7 1 2 4 5
12 SCR Altach 7 1 0 6 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Rapid Vienna 7 21 7 +14 18
2 Lask Linz 7 19 7 +12 16
3 Red Bull Salzburg 7 18 4 +14 17
4 Ried 7 11 12 -1 8
5 TSV Hartberg 7 10 13 -3 8
6 WSG Wattens 7 9 12 -3 8
7 Sturm Graz 7 8 9 -1 11
8 Austria Lustenau 7 8 11 -3 8
9 Austria Vienna 7 7 13 -6 7
10 Wolfsberger AC 7 7 13 -6 5
11 Grazer AK 7 6 16 -10 8
12 SCR Altach 7 5 12 -7 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Lask Linz 7 11.0 2.3 +8.7 16
2 Red Bull Salzburg 7 12.7 4.4 +8.3 17
3 Rapid Vienna 7 10.5 3.9 +6.6 18
4 Sturm Graz 7 7.5 4.8 +2.7 11
5 Ried 7 7.8 8.2 -0.4 8
6 SCR Altach 7 6.1 7.9 -1.8 3
7 WSG Wattens 7 5.6 8.2 -2.6 8
8 Austria Lustenau 7 5.8 9.0 -3.2 8
9 Wolfsberger AC 7 4.8 8.6 -3.8 5
10 TSV Hartberg 7 5.9 10.1 -4.2 8
11 Grazer AK 7 5.9 10.2 -4.3 8
12 Austria Vienna 7 2.4 8.5 -6.1 7