Statistics / Football / Austria. Bundesliga / Lask Linz vs Ried

Lask Linz vs Ried Statistics & Analysis

Lask Linz Lask Linz
Aug 14, 2026 - 17:30
4 2.02
1 1.18
xG Accuracy: 55%
Ried Ried
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Lask Linz Lask Linz ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 1-0, 3-1 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 08, 2026 · 01:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3232882

Closing Odds 1.47
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Lask Linz win · Lask Linz 4–1 Ried
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Ried (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Ried (1X2) by about 5.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Lask Linz (1X2) 55.6 65.4 -9.8
Draw (1X2) 23.9 19.9 +4.0
Ried (1X2) 20.6 14.7 +5.9
Over 2.5 goals 62.0 60.7 +1.3
Under 2.5 goals 38.0 39.3 -1.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 20.6% on Ried (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 14.7%. The difference — about 5.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Lask Linz (1X2) 1.47 1.47 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.83 4.83 0.0
Ried (1X2) 6.53 6.53 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.59 1.59 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.46 2.46 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Bundesliga
  • Fixture: Lask Linz vs Ried
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-14 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 55.6% · Draw 23.9% · Away 20.6%
  • xG (showing): Lask Linz 2.02 — Ried 1.18 (total xG ≈ 3.2)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 61.4% · Implied: 53.7% · Probability edge: +7.7 pts · Est. EV: +10.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 61.4% · No 38.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (9.8%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Lask Linz & Ried!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Bundesliga Bundesliga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Rapid Vienna 7 6 0 1 18
2 Red Bull Salzburg 7 5 2 0 17
3 Lask Linz 7 5 1 1 16
4 Sturm Graz 7 3 2 2 11
5 Ried 7 2 2 3 8
6 TSV Hartberg 7 2 2 3 8
7 WSG Wattens 7 2 2 3 8
8 Austria Lustenau 7 2 2 3 8
9 Grazer AK 7 2 2 3 8
10 Austria Vienna 7 2 1 4 7
11 Wolfsberger AC 7 1 2 4 5
12 SCR Altach 7 1 0 6 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Rapid Vienna 7 21 7 +14 18
2 Lask Linz 7 19 7 +12 16
3 Red Bull Salzburg 7 18 4 +14 17
4 Ried 7 11 12 -1 8
5 TSV Hartberg 7 10 13 -3 8
6 WSG Wattens 7 9 12 -3 8
7 Sturm Graz 7 8 9 -1 11
8 Austria Lustenau 7 8 11 -3 8
9 Austria Vienna 7 7 13 -6 7
10 Wolfsberger AC 7 7 13 -6 5
11 Grazer AK 7 6 16 -10 8
12 SCR Altach 7 5 12 -7 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Lask Linz 7 11.0 2.3 +8.7 16
2 Red Bull Salzburg 7 12.7 4.4 +8.3 17
3 Rapid Vienna 7 10.5 3.9 +6.6 18
4 Sturm Graz 7 7.5 4.8 +2.7 11
5 Ried 7 7.8 8.2 -0.4 8
6 SCR Altach 7 6.1 7.9 -1.8 3
7 WSG Wattens 7 5.6 8.2 -2.6 8
8 Austria Lustenau 7 5.8 9.0 -3.2 8
9 Wolfsberger AC 7 4.8 8.6 -3.8 5
10 TSV Hartberg 7 5.9 10.1 -4.2 8
11 Grazer AK 7 5.9 10.2 -4.3 8
12 Austria Vienna 7 2.4 8.5 -6.1 7