Statistics / Football / Poland. II Liga - East / Legia Warszawa II vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała

Legia Warszawa II vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała Statistics & Analysis

Legia Warszawa II Legia Warszawa II
Sep 06, 2026 - 10:00
1 1.37
2 1.23
xG Accuracy: 73%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała Rekord Bielsko-Biała
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Legia Warszawa II Rekord Bielsko-Biała ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 01:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6322988

Closing Odds 2.11
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Rekord Bielsko-Biała win · Legia Warszawa II 1–2 Rekord Bielsko-Biała
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Rekord Bielsko-Biała (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 10.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Legia Warszawa II (1X2) 38.5 43.4 -5.0
Draw (1X2) 29.6 26.0 +3.6
Rekord Bielsko-Biała (1X2) 31.9 30.5 +1.4
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 58.2 -10.0
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 41.8 +10.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 41.8%. The difference — about 10.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Legia Warszawa II (1X2) 2.11 2.11 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.52 3.52 0.0
Rekord Bielsko-Biała (1X2) 3.0 3.0 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.6 1.6 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.23 2.23 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: II Liga - East
  • Fixture: Legia Warszawa II vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): Legia Warszawa II 1.37 — Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 42.4% · Probability edge: +9.4 pts · Est. EV: +19.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
II Liga - East II Liga - East — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Znicz Pruszków 9 6 2 1 20
2 Górnik Łęczna 9 5 2 2 17
3 Tychy 71 9 4 5 0 17
4 Zawisza Bydgoszcz 9 4 4 1 16
5 Rekord Bielsko-Biała 9 5 1 3 16
6 Hutnik Kraków 9 4 3 2 15
7 Sandecja Nowy Sącz 9 4 3 2 15
8 Chojniczanka Chojnice 9 4 2 3 14
9 Podhale Nowy Targ 9 4 2 3 14
10 Lechia Zielona Góra 9 3 3 3 12
11 Olimpia Grudziądz 9 3 3 3 12
12 Stal Stalowa Wola 9 3 1 5 10
13 Avia Świdnik 9 3 1 5 10
14 Legia Warszawa II 9 3 0 6 9
15 Śląsk Wrocław II 9 3 0 6 9
16 Sokół Kleczew 9 1 5 3 8
17 Świt Skolwin 9 1 2 6 5
18 Resovia Rzeszów 9 0 3 6 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Znicz Pruszków 9 19 10 +9 20
2 Górnik Łęczna 9 18 9 +9 17
3 Podhale Nowy Targ 9 18 17 +1 14
4 Legia Warszawa II 9 18 17 +1 9
5 Lechia Zielona Góra 9 17 15 +2 12
6 Zawisza Bydgoszcz 9 16 11 +5 16
7 Hutnik Kraków 9 16 11 +5 15
8 Chojniczanka Chojnice 9 16 14 +2 14
9 Śląsk Wrocław II 9 15 17 -2 9
10 Rekord Bielsko-Biała 9 14 9 +5 16
11 Stal Stalowa Wola 9 14 17 -3 10
12 Sandecja Nowy Sącz 9 13 8 +5 15
13 Tychy 71 9 12 6 +6 17
14 Avia Świdnik 9 12 16 -4 10
15 Olimpia Grudziądz 9 11 15 -4 12
16 Sokół Kleczew 9 10 21 -11 8
17 Świt Skolwin 9 9 23 -14 5
18 Resovia Rzeszów 9 6 18 -12 3
II Liga - East Poland. II Liga - East Predictions