Statistics / Football / Russia. Premier League / Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow

Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow Statistics & Analysis

Makhachkala Makhachkala
Sep 17, 2026 - 17:45
1 1.22
3 1.38
xG Accuracy: 60%
CSKA Moscow CSKA Moscow
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 CSKA Moscow CSKA Moscow ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 11, 2026 · 04:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7998984

Closing Odds 2.32
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result CSKA Moscow win · Makhachkala 1–3 CSKA Moscow
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Makhachkala (1X2) 31.5 30.1 +1.4
Draw (1X2) 29.5 28.2 +1.4
CSKA Moscow (1X2) 39.0 41.7 -2.7
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 48.6 -0.4
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 51.4 +0.4

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Makhachkala (1X2) 3.21 3.21 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.43 3.43 0.0
CSKA Moscow (1X2) 2.32 2.32 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.0 2.0 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.89 1.89 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-17 17:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.0%
  • xG (showing): Makhachkala 1.22 — CSKA Moscow 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.5%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FC Krasnodar 9 6 3 0 21
2 Dynamo 9 6 1 2 19
3 CSKA Moscow 9 5 4 0 19
4 Spartak Moscow 9 6 1 2 19
5 Zenit 9 6 0 3 18
6 Rubin 9 2 6 1 12
7 Makhachkala 9 4 0 5 12
8 Baltika 9 3 2 4 11
9 Krylia Sovetov 9 2 5 2 11
10 Akhmat 9 2 4 3 10
11 FC Orenburg 9 1 6 2 9
12 FC Rostov 9 2 2 5 8
13 Akron 9 1 5 3 8
14 Lokomotiv 9 1 4 4 7
15 Rodina Moskva 9 1 2 6 5
16 Fakel 9 0 3 6 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Zenit 9 19 9 +10 18
2 Spartak Moscow 9 16 7 +9 19
3 CSKA Moscow 9 15 9 +6 19
4 Makhachkala 9 15 16 -1 12
5 FC Krasnodar 9 14 7 +7 21
6 Dynamo 9 14 8 +6 19
7 Baltika 9 14 12 +2 11
8 Akhmat 9 13 13 0 10
9 Krylia Sovetov 9 13 14 -1 11
10 Rubin 9 12 11 +1 12
11 Akron 9 11 18 -7 8
12 FC Rostov 9 10 17 -7 8
13 Rodina Moskva 9 10 22 -12 5
14 Lokomotiv 9 8 11 -3 7
15 FC Orenburg 9 7 10 -3 9
16 Fakel 9 6 13 -7 3