Statistics / Football / Russia. Premier League / CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov

CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov Statistics & Analysis

CSKA Moscow CSKA Moscow
Aug 08, 2026 - 17:30
0 1.05
0 1.07
xG Accuracy: 56%
FC Rostov FC Rostov
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 FC Rostov Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 0-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 02:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2827515

Closing Odds 1.61
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · CSKA Moscow 0–0 FC Rostov
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices CSKA Moscow (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals, BTTS No meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on CSKA Moscow (1X2) by about 16.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
CSKA Moscow (1X2) 32.9 16.0 +16.9
Draw (1X2) 33.3 23.9 +9.4
FC Rostov (1X2) 33.9 60.1 -26.2
Over 2.5 goals 35.6 50.0 -14.4
Under 2.5 goals 64.4 50.0 +14.4
BTTS Yes 44.5 48.6 -4.2
BTTS No 55.5 51.4 +4.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.9% on CSKA Moscow (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 16.0%. The difference — about 16.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Marathonbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
CSKA Moscow (1X2) 6.05 6.05 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.05 4.05 0.0
FC Rostov (1X2) 1.61 1.61 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.93 1.93 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.93 1.93 0.0
BTTS Yes 1.9 1.9 0.0
BTTS No 1.8 1.8 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-08 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 33.3% · Away 33.9%
  • xG (showing): CSKA Moscow 1.05 — FC Rostov 1.07 (total xG ≈ 2.12)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 64.4% · Over 2.5 35.6%); BTTS No (Yes 44.5% · No 55.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 44.5% · No 55.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FC Krasnodar 9 6 3 0 21
2 Dynamo 9 6 1 2 19
3 CSKA Moscow 9 5 4 0 19
4 Spartak Moscow 9 6 1 2 19
5 Zenit 9 6 0 3 18
6 Rubin 9 2 6 1 12
7 Makhachkala 9 4 0 5 12
8 Baltika 9 3 2 4 11
9 Krylia Sovetov 9 2 5 2 11
10 Akhmat 9 2 4 3 10
11 FC Orenburg 9 1 6 2 9
12 FC Rostov 9 2 2 5 8
13 Akron 9 1 5 3 8
14 Lokomotiv 9 1 4 4 7
15 Rodina Moskva 9 1 2 6 5
16 Fakel 9 0 3 6 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Zenit 9 19 9 +10 18
2 Spartak Moscow 9 16 7 +9 19
3 CSKA Moscow 9 15 9 +6 19
4 Makhachkala 9 15 16 -1 12
5 FC Krasnodar 9 14 7 +7 21
6 Dynamo 9 14 8 +6 19
7 Baltika 9 14 12 +2 11
8 Akhmat 9 13 13 0 10
9 Krylia Sovetov 9 13 14 -1 11
10 Rubin 9 12 11 +1 12
11 Akron 9 11 18 -7 8
12 FC Rostov 9 10 17 -7 8
13 Rodina Moskva 9 10 22 -12 5
14 Lokomotiv 9 8 11 -3 7
15 FC Orenburg 9 7 10 -3 9
16 Fakel 9 6 13 -7 3