Statistics / Football / Uruguay. Segunda División / Fenix vs Sportivo Huracan

Fenix vs Sportivo Huracan Statistics & Analysis

Fenix Fenix
Jul 05, 2026 - 17:00
2 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 58%
Sportivo Huracan Sportivo Huracan
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Fenix Fenix ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 19:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2896579

Closing Odds 1.91
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Fenix win · Fenix 2–0 Sportivo Huracan
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.37 percentage points on Fenix (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Sportivo Huracan (1X2) by about 6.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Fenix (1X2) 39.4 48.6 -9.2
Draw (1X2) 29.2 26.9 +2.3
Sportivo Huracan (1X2) 31.5 24.5 +6.9
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 49.3 -1.1
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 50.7 +1.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 31.5% on Sportivo Huracan (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 24.5%. The difference — about 6.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365 → Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Early and closing snapshots used different bookmakers — interpret movement with care.
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Fenix (1X2) 1.9 1.91 +1.4
Draw (1X2) 3.3 3.45 -0.3
Sportivo Huracan (1X2) 3.5 3.78 -1.1
Over 2.5 goals 1.95 1.93 +0.7
Under 2.5 goals 1.85 1.88 -0.7

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Segunda División
  • Fixture: Fenix vs Sportivo Huracan
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-05 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 31.5%
  • xG (showing): Fenix 1.32 — Sportivo Huracan 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.0%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Segunda División Segunda División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Oriental 6 4 1 1 13
2 Plaza Colonia 6 3 3 0 12
3 Fenix 6 3 2 1 11
4 Sportivo Huracan 6 2 4 0 10
5 Colón 6 2 3 1 9
6 Uruguay Montevideo 6 2 3 1 9
7 Rentistas 6 2 3 1 9
8 Cerrito 6 2 3 1 9
9 La Luz 6 1 4 1 7
10 Miramar 6 1 2 3 5
11 Paysandu 6 1 1 4 4
12 Atenas 6 1 1 4 4
13 CA River Plate 6 1 1 4 4
14 Tacuarembo 6 0 3 3 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Fenix 6 13 7 +6 11
2 Plaza Colonia 6 9 2 +7 12
3 Sportivo Huracan 6 9 6 +3 10
4 Oriental 6 8 5 +3 13
5 Colón 6 8 5 +3 9
6 Cerrito 6 8 8 0 9
7 Uruguay Montevideo 6 7 5 +2 9
8 Rentistas 6 6 5 +1 9
9 CA River Plate 6 6 13 -7 4
10 La Luz 6 5 6 -1 7
11 Tacuarembo 6 5 9 -4 3
12 Atenas 6 5 11 -6 4
13 Paysandu 6 4 7 -3 4
14 Miramar 6 3 7 -4 5
Segunda División Uruguay. Segunda División Predictions