Vitória ES vs Rio Branco-VN Statistics & Analysis

Vitória ES

Jul 01, 2026 - 23:00

0 1.51

1 1.09

xG Accuracy: 64%

Rio Branco-VN

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Vitória ES Rio Branco-VN ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 11:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2985209

Closing Odds 1.5

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Rio Branco-VN win · Vitória ES 0–1 Rio Branco-VN

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Rio Branco-VN (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 5.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Vitória ES (1X2)	49.8	59.7	-9.9
Draw (1X2)	27.6	22.4	+5.2
Rio Branco-VN (1X2)	22.6	17.9	+4.7
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	51.3	-3.1
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	48.7	+3.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 27.6% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 22.4%. The difference — about 5.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Vitória ES (1X2)	1.5	1.5
Draw (1X2)	4.0	4.0
Rio Branco-VN (1X2)	5.0	5.0
Over 2.5 goals	1.85	1.85
Under 2.5 goals	1.95	1.95

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Copa Espírito Santo
Fixture: Vitória ES vs Rio Branco-VN
Kickoff: 2026-07-01 23:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 49.8% · Draw 27.6% · Away 22.6%
xG (showing): Vitória ES 1.51 — Rio Branco-VN 1.09 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
Model: 53.3% · Implied: 47.7% · Probability edge: +5.6 pts · Est. EV: +2.9%
BTTS (model): Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Copa Espírito Santo — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Porto Vitória	7	5	1	1	16
2	Vitória ES	7	4	1	2	13
3	Vilavelhense	7	4	1	2	13
4	Rio Branco-VN	7	4	1	2	13
5	Rio Branco ES	7	3	2	2	11
6	Sport Brasil ES	7	2	0	5	6
7	Serra Talhada	7	1	1	5	4
8	Audax São Mateus	7	1	1	5	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Vitória ES	7	16	8	+8	13
2	Porto Vitória	7	14	5	+9	16
3	Rio Branco ES	7	11	7	+4	11
4	Vilavelhense	7	10	8	+2	13
5	Rio Branco-VN	7	6	4	+2	13
6	Serra Talhada	7	6	10	-4	4
7	Sport Brasil ES	7	3	13	-10	6
8	Audax São Mateus	7	2	13	-11	4