Statistics / Football / Slovakia. 2. liga / Inter Bratislava vs Petržalka

Inter Bratislava vs Petržalka Statistics & Analysis

Inter Bratislava Inter Bratislava
Sep 12, 2026 - 14:00
4 1.24
0 1.36
xG Accuracy: 32%
Petržalka Petržalka
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Petržalka Inter Bratislava ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7441486

Closing Odds 3.41
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Inter Bratislava win · Inter Bratislava 4–0 Petržalka
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 5.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Inter Bratislava (1X2) 32.4 33.3 -0.9
Draw (1X2) 29.6 26.9 +2.7
Petržalka (1X2) 38.0 39.8 -1.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 53.3 -5.1
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 46.7 +5.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 46.7%. The difference — about 5.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Inter Bratislava (1X2) 2.75 2.75 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.41 3.41 0.0
Petržalka (1X2) 2.3 2.3 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.76 1.76 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.01 2.01 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 2. liga
  • Fixture: Inter Bratislava vs Petržalka
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-12 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
  • xG (showing): Inter Bratislava 1.24 — Petržalka 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 47.3% · Probability edge: +4.5 pts · Est. EV: +4.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
2. liga 2. liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Petržalka 10 9 0 1 27
2 Šamorín 10 9 0 1 27
3 Považská Bystrica 10 6 1 3 19
4 Žilina II 9 5 1 3 16
5 Pohronie 10 5 1 4 16
6 Galanta 10 5 1 4 16
7 Inter Bratislava 10 4 3 3 15
8 Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 10 3 4 3 13
9 Tatran Prešov 9 4 1 4 13
10 Zlaté Moravce 10 3 3 4 12
11 Liptovský Mikuláš 9 2 4 3 10
12 Malženice 9 3 1 5 10
13 Slovan Bratislava II 9 2 2 5 8
14 Humenné 9 2 1 6 7
15 MFK Bytča 10 2 0 8 6
16 Lokomotíva Zvolen 10 0 3 7 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Šamorín 10 22 10 +12 27
2 Petržalka 10 20 6 +14 27
3 Inter Bratislava 10 20 11 +9 15
4 Považská Bystrica 10 20 17 +3 19
5 Pohronie 10 16 15 +1 16
6 Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 10 15 16 -1 13
7 Liptovský Mikuláš 9 13 11 +2 10
8 Galanta 10 13 14 -1 16
9 Žilina II 9 12 9 +3 16
10 Malženice 9 12 13 -1 10
11 Slovan Bratislava II 9 12 14 -2 8
12 Zlaté Moravce 10 10 9 +1 12
13 Tatran Prešov 9 10 12 -2 13
14 MFK Bytča 10 8 28 -20 6
15 Lokomotíva Zvolen 10 7 18 -11 3
16 Humenné 9 6 13 -7 7
2. liga Slovakia. 2. liga Predictions