Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom vs Humenné Statistics & Analysis

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

Aug 29, 2026 - 14:30

1 1.39

0 1.21

xG Accuracy: 64%

Humenné

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 03:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5146143

Closing Odds 1.79

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom win · Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 1–0 Humenné

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Humenné (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 10.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom (1X2)	39.5	51.1	-11.6
Draw (1X2)	29.5	22.1	+7.4
Humenné (1X2)	31.0	26.8	+4.3
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	58.3	-10.1
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	41.7	+10.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 41.7%. The difference — about 10.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom (1X2)	1.79	1.79
Draw (1X2)	4.14	4.14
Humenné (1X2)	3.42	3.42
Over 2.5 goals	1.61	1.61
Under 2.5 goals	2.25	2.25

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: 2. liga
Fixture: Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom vs Humenné
Kickoff: 2026-08-29 14:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
xG (showing): Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 1.39 — Humenné 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 42.5% · Probability edge: +9.3 pts · Est. EV: +16.6%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom & Humenné!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics

2. liga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Petržalka	8	7	0	1	21
2	Šamorín	8	7	0	1	21
3	Pohronie	8	5	1	2	16
4	Považská Bystrica	8	5	1	2	16
5	Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom	8	3	4	1	13
6	Žilina II	8	4	1	3	13
7	Tatran Prešov	8	4	1	3	13
8	Inter Bratislava	8	3	2	3	11
9	Galanta	8	3	1	4	10
10	Liptovský Mikuláš	8	2	3	3	9
11	Slovan Bratislava II	8	2	2	4	8
12	Zlaté Moravce	7	2	2	3	8
13	Malženice	8	2	1	5	7
14	Humenné	8	2	0	6	6
15	Lokomotíva Zvolen	7	0	3	4	3
16	MFK Bytča	8	1	0	7	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Šamorín	8	18	9	+9	21
2	Petržalka	8	17	6	+11	21
3	Inter Bratislava	8	16	10	+6	11
4	Pohronie	8	16	11	+5	16
5	Považská Bystrica	8	14	12	+2	16
6	Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom	8	13	10	+3	13
7	Liptovský Mikuláš	8	13	11	+2	9
8	Slovan Bratislava II	8	11	12	-1	8
9	Tatran Prešov	8	10	11	-1	13
10	Malženice	8	10	12	-2	7
11	Žilina II	8	8	7	+1	13
12	Galanta	8	7	12	-5	10
13	Zlaté Moravce	7	6	7	-1	8
14	Lokomotíva Zvolen	7	5	9	-4	3
15	Humenné	8	5	12	-7	6
16	MFK Bytča	8	5	23	-18	3