Statistics / Football / Slovakia. 2. liga / MFK Bytča vs Liptovský Mikuláš

MFK Bytča vs Liptovský Mikuláš Statistics & Analysis

MFK Bytča MFK Bytča
Jul 25, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.25
5 1.35
xG Accuracy: 26%
Liptovský Mikuláš Liptovský Mikuláš
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Liptovský Mikuláš Liptovský Mikuláš ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-5 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1456294

Closing Odds 1.8
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Liptovský Mikuláš win · MFK Bytča 0–5 Liptovský Mikuláš
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices MFK Bytča (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on MFK Bytča (1X2) by about 9.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
MFK Bytča (1X2) 32.9 23.3 +9.6
Draw (1X2) 29.6 24.9 +4.7
Liptovský Mikuláš (1X2) 37.6 51.8 -14.2
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 55.3 -7.1
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 44.7 +7.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.9% on MFK Bytča (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 23.3%. The difference — about 9.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
MFK Bytča (1X2) 4.0 4.0 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.75 3.75 0.0
Liptovský Mikuláš (1X2) 1.8 1.8 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.7 1.7 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.1 2.1 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 2. liga
  • Fixture: MFK Bytča vs Liptovský Mikuláš
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-25 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): MFK Bytča 1.25 — Liptovský Mikuláš 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 43.8% · Probability edge: +8.0 pts · Est. EV: +14.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
2. liga 2. liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Petržalka 10 9 0 1 27
2 Šamorín 10 9 0 1 27
3 Považská Bystrica 10 6 1 3 19
4 Žilina II 9 5 1 3 16
5 Pohronie 10 5 1 4 16
6 Galanta 10 5 1 4 16
7 Inter Bratislava 10 4 3 3 15
8 Tatran Prešov 10 4 2 4 14
9 Liptovský Mikuláš 10 3 4 3 13
10 Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 10 3 4 3 13
11 Zlaté Moravce 10 3 3 4 12
12 Malženice 10 3 1 6 10
13 Slovan Bratislava II 10 2 3 5 9
14 Humenné 9 2 1 6 7
15 MFK Bytča 10 2 0 8 6
16 Lokomotíva Zvolen 10 0 3 7 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Šamorín 10 22 10 +12 27
2 Petržalka 10 20 6 +14 27
3 Inter Bratislava 10 20 11 +9 15
4 Považská Bystrica 10 20 17 +3 19
5 Pohronie 10 16 15 +1 16
6 Liptovský Mikuláš 10 15 12 +3 13
7 Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 10 15 16 -1 13
8 Slovan Bratislava II 10 14 16 -2 9
9 Galanta 10 13 14 -1 16
10 Malženice 10 13 15 -2 10
11 Žilina II 9 12 9 +3 16
12 Tatran Prešov 10 12 14 -2 14
13 Zlaté Moravce 10 10 9 +1 12
14 MFK Bytča 10 8 28 -20 6
15 Lokomotíva Zvolen 10 7 18 -11 3
16 Humenné 9 6 13 -7 7
2. liga Slovakia. 2. liga Predictions