Sweden U19 W vs Poland U19 W Statistics & Analysis

Sweden U19 W

Jun 27, 2026 - 18:00

1 1.20

0 1.40

xG Accuracy: 64%

Poland U19 W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Poland U19 W Sweden U19 W ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1745586

Closing Odds 1.78

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Sweden U19 W win · Sweden U19 W 1–0 Poland U19 W

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Sweden U19 W (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 6.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Sweden U19 W (1X2)	29.6	24.1	+5.4
Draw (1X2)	28.9	25.9	+3.0
Poland U19 W (1X2)	41.5	49.9	-8.4
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	54.6	-6.4
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	45.4	+6.4

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 45.4%. The difference — about 6.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Sweden U19 W (1X2)	3.68	3.68
Draw (1X2)	3.43	3.43
Poland U19 W (1X2)	1.78	1.78
Over 2.5 goals	1.69	1.69
Under 2.5 goals	2.03	2.03

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: UEFA U19 Championship - Women
Fixture: Sweden U19 W vs Poland U19 W
Kickoff: 2026-06-27 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 29.6% · Draw 28.9% · Away 41.5%
xG (showing): Sweden U19 W 1.2 — Poland U19 W 1.4 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 45.2% · Probability edge: +6.6 pts · Est. EV: +8.8%
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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