Statistics / Football / Japan. WE League / Vegalta Sendai vs Parceiro Nagano W

Vegalta Sendai vs Parceiro Nagano W Statistics & Analysis

Vegalta Sendai Vegalta Sendai
Aug 23, 2026 - 09:00
2 1.45
1 1.15
xG Accuracy: 82%
Parceiro Nagano W Parceiro Nagano W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Vegalta Sendai Vegalta Sendai ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 17, 2026 · 00:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4358250

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Vegalta Sendai win · Vegalta Sendai 2–1 Parceiro Nagano W
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: WE League
  • Fixture: Vegalta Sendai vs Parceiro Nagano W
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-23 09:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 28.4%
  • xG (showing): Vegalta Sendai 1.45 — Parceiro Nagano W 1.15 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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WE League WE League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Urawa Reds W 3 3 0 0 9
2 INAC Kobe Leonessa W 4 2 1 1 7
3 Tokyo Verdy Beleza W 3 2 0 1 6
4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima W 3 2 0 1 6
5 Cerezo Osaka W 3 1 1 1 4
6 Albirex Niigata W 3 1 1 1 4
7 Elfen Saitama W 3 1 1 1 4
8 JEF United W 3 1 0 2 3
9 Vegalta Sendai 3 1 0 2 3
10 Omiya Ardija Ventus W 3 1 0 2 3
11 Nojima Stella W 3 1 0 2 3
12 Parceiro Nagano W 4 0 2 2 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Urawa Reds W 3 9 2 +7 9
2 INAC Kobe Leonessa W 4 9 6 +3 7
3 Tokyo Verdy Beleza W 3 7 5 +2 6
4 Albirex Niigata W 3 5 5 0 4
5 Sanfrecce Hiroshima W 3 4 2 +2 6
6 Cerezo Osaka W 3 4 3 +1 4
7 JEF United W 3 4 5 -1 3
8 Vegalta Sendai 3 4 6 -2 3
9 Parceiro Nagano W 4 4 8 -4 2
10 Nojima Stella W 3 3 9 -6 3
11 Elfen Saitama W 3 2 2 0 4
12 Omiya Ardija Ventus W 3 2 4 -2 3