Statistics / Football / Australia. Australia Cup / Sydney Olympic vs Brisbane Roar

Sydney Olympic vs Brisbane Roar Statistics & Analysis

Sydney Olympic Sydney Olympic
Jul 30, 2026 - 09:30
0 1.37
3 1.23
xG Accuracy: 42%
Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Sydney Olympic Brisbane Roar ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 01:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1523816

Closing Odds 1.42
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Brisbane Roar win · Sydney Olympic 0–3 Brisbane Roar
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.9 percentage points on Brisbane Roar (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Sydney Olympic (1X2) by about 22.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Sydney Olympic (1X2) 38.5 16.1 +22.4
Draw (1X2) 29.6 19.0 +10.6
Brisbane Roar (1X2) 31.9 64.9 -32.9
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 65.4 -17.2
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 34.6 +17.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 38.5% on Sydney Olympic (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 16.1%. The difference — about 22.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Sydney Olympic (1X2) 5.49 5.72 -0.4
Draw (1X2) 4.66 4.84 -0.5
Brisbane Roar (1X2) 1.42 1.42 +0.9
Over 2.5 goals 1.43 1.43 +0.5
Under 2.5 goals 2.64 2.7 -0.5

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Sydney Olympic; market prices Brisbane Roar instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Sydney Olympic 1.37 xG vs Brisbane Roar 1.23 → Sydney Olympic 38.5%
  • Market: Brisbane Roar ~16.1% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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