Statistics / Football / Australia. Australia Cup / Marlin Coast vs Brunswick Juventus FC

Marlin Coast vs Brunswick Juventus FC Statistics & Analysis

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Marlin Coast
Jul 15, 2026 - 09:30
0 1.32
4 1.28
xG Accuracy: 33%
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Brunswick Juventus FC
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Marlin Coast Brunswick Juventus FC ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 15:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1469915

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds 2.77
CLV Pending
Final Result Brunswick Juventus FC win · Marlin Coast 0–4 Brunswick Juventus FC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 36.1%
  • Historical Bucket: 35–40% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Australia Cup
  • Fixture: Marlin Coast vs Brunswick Juventus FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-15 09:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Marlin Coast 1.32 — Brunswick Juventus FC 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 32.4% · Probability edge: +19.5 pts · Est. EV: +50.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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