Statistics / Football / Venezuela. Copa Venezuela / Monagas SC vs Mineros de Guyana

Monagas SC vs Mineros de Guyana Statistics & Analysis

Monagas SC Monagas SC
Aug 19, 2026 - 20:00
1 1.39
0 1.21
xG Accuracy: 64%
Mineros de Guyana Mineros de Guyana
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Monagas SC Monagas SC ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3696664

Closing Odds 1.6
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Monagas SC win · Monagas SC 1–0 Mineros de Guyana
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Mineros de Guyana (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Mineros de Guyana (1X2) by about 11.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Monagas SC (1X2) 39.5 55.4 -15.9
Draw (1X2) 29.5 24.8 +4.7
Mineros de Guyana (1X2) 31.0 19.8 +11.2
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 53.1 -4.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 46.9 +4.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 31.0% on Mineros de Guyana (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 19.8%. The difference — about 11.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Monagas SC (1X2) 1.6 1.6 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.58 3.58 0.0
Mineros de Guyana (1X2) 4.48 4.48 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.73 1.73 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.96 1.96 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Copa Venezuela
  • Fixture: Monagas SC vs Mineros de Guyana
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-19 20:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
  • xG (showing): Monagas SC 1.39 — Mineros de Guyana 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Monagas SC & Mineros de Guyana!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Copa Venezuela Copa Venezuela — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Academia Anzoátegui 3 2 1 0 7
2 Atletico Avila FC 2 1 0 1 3
3 Petare FC 3 0 1 2 1
4 Marítimo 0 0 0 0 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Academia Anzoátegui 3 7 4 +3 7
2 Petare FC 3 3 5 -2 1
3 Atletico Avila FC 2 2 3 -1 3
4 Marítimo 0 0 0 0 0