Statistics / Football / Venezuela. Copa Venezuela / Aragua FC vs Fundación Lara Deportiva

Aragua FC vs Fundación Lara Deportiva Statistics & Analysis

Aragua FC Aragua FC
Aug 19, 2026 - 20:00
0 1.20
1 1.40
xG Accuracy: 64%
Fundación Lara Deportiva Fundación Lara Deportiva
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Fundación Lara Deportiva Fundación Lara Deportiva ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 00:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4205510

Closing Odds 1.45
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Fundación Lara Deportiva win · Aragua FC 0–1 Fundación Lara Deportiva
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 21.97 percentage points on Aragua FC (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Fundación Lara Deportiva (1X2) by about 22.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Aragua FC (1X2) 30.6 58.7 -28.1
Draw (1X2) 29.5 24.1 +5.4
Fundación Lara Deportiva (1X2) 40.0 17.2 +22.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 39.7 +8.5
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 60.3 -8.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 40.0% on Fundación Lara Deportiva (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 17.2%. The difference — about 22.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Aragua FC (1X2) 2.41 1.45 +22.0
Draw (1X2) 2.89 3.53 -6.5
Fundación Lara Deportiva (1X2) 2.71 4.95 -15.5
Over 2.5 goals 2.31 2.23 +0.4
Under 2.5 goals 1.5 1.47 -0.4

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Copa Venezuela
  • Fixture: Aragua FC vs Fundación Lara Deportiva
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-19 20:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Away 40.0%
  • xG (showing): Aragua FC 1.2 — Fundación Lara Deportiva 1.4 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.3% · Implied: 40.6% · Probability edge: +13.8 pts · Est. EV: +33.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Copa Venezuela Copa Venezuela — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Academia Anzoátegui 3 2 1 0 7
2 Atletico Avila FC 2 1 0 1 3
3 Petare FC 3 0 1 2 1
4 Marítimo 0 0 0 0 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Academia Anzoátegui 3 7 4 +3 7
2 Petare FC 3 3 5 -2 1
3 Atletico Avila FC 2 2 3 -1 3
4 Marítimo 0 0 0 0 0
Copa Venezuela Venezuela. Copa Venezuela Predictions