Statistics / Football / Venezuela. Copa Venezuela / Real Frontera vs Club Atletico Barinas

Real Frontera vs Club Atletico Barinas Statistics & Analysis

Real Frontera Real Frontera
Jun 24, 2026 - 19:30
0 1.28
1 1.32
xG Accuracy: 64%
⚽
Club Atletico Barinas
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Club Atletico Barinas Club Atletico Barinas ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 15:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1613215

Closing Odds 2.3
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Club Atletico Barinas win · Real Frontera 0–1 Club Atletico Barinas
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Club Atletico Barinas (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 7.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Real Frontera (1X2) 34.2 39.3 -5.1
Draw (1X2) 29.7 25.7 +4.0
Club Atletico Barinas (1X2) 36.1 35.0 +1.1
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 55.6 -7.4
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 44.4 +7.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 44.4%. The difference — about 7.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Real Frontera (1X2) 2.3 2.3 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.52 3.52 0.0
Club Atletico Barinas (1X2) 2.58 2.58 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.68 1.68 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.1 2.1 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Copa Venezuela
  • Fixture: Real Frontera vs Club Atletico Barinas
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-24 19:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Real Frontera 1.28 — Club Atletico Barinas 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 44.8% · Probability edge: +7.0 pts · Est. EV: +9.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Copa Venezuela Copa Venezuela — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Academia Anzoátegui 3 2 1 0 7
2 Atletico Avila FC 2 1 0 1 3
3 Petare FC 3 0 1 2 1
4 Marítimo 0 0 0 0 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Academia Anzoátegui 3 7 4 +3 7
2 Petare FC 3 3 5 -2 1
3 Atletico Avila FC 2 2 3 -1 3
4 Marítimo 0 0 0 0 0