Sutton Utd vs Walton & Hersham Statistics & Analysis

Sutton Utd

Jul 21, 2026 - 18:45

1 1.36

1 1.24

xG Accuracy: 85%

Walton & Hersham

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Sutton United Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 03, 2026 · 07:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2918703

Closing Odds 1.49

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Sutton Utd 1–1 Walton & Hersham

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Walton & Hersham (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Walton & Hersham (1X2) by about 14.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Sutton Utd (1X2)	38.0	59.5	-21.5
Draw (1X2)	29.6	22.1	+7.5
Walton & Hersham (1X2)	32.4	18.4	+14.0
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	60.5	-12.3
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	39.5	+12.3

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.4% on Walton & Hersham (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 18.4%. The difference — about 14.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Sutton Utd (1X2)	1.49	1.49
Draw (1X2)	4.02	4.02
Walton & Hersham (1X2)	4.82	4.82
Over 2.5 goals	1.51	1.51
Under 2.5 goals	2.31	2.31

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Club Friendlies
Fixture: Sutton United vs Walton & Hersham
Kickoff: 2026-07-21 18:45:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
xG (showing): Sutton United 1.36 — Walton & Hersham 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Sutton Utd & Walton & Hersham!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics