VVV Venlo vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven II Statistics & Analysis

VVV Venlo

Jul 18, 2026 - 11:00

2 1.37

1 1.23

xG Accuracy: 79%

Oud-Heverlee Leuven II

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 VVV Venlo VVV Venlo ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 04:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1550395

Closing Odds 1.28

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result VVV Venlo win · VVV Venlo 2–1 Oud-Heverlee Leuven II

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Oud-Heverlee Leuven II (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 16.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
VVV Venlo (1X2)	45.0	70.1	-25.1
Draw (1X2)	27.9	17.9	+9.9
Oud-Heverlee Leuven II (1X2)	27.1	12.0	+15.1
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	64.5	-16.3
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	35.5	+16.3

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 35.5%. The difference — about 16.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
VVV Venlo (1X2)	1.28	1.28
Draw (1X2)	5.0	5.0
Oud-Heverlee Leuven II (1X2)	7.5	7.5
Over 2.5 goals	1.44	1.44
Under 2.5 goals	2.62	2.62

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Club Friendlies
Fixture: VVV-Venlo vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven II
Kickoff: 2026-07-18 11:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 27.9% · Away 27.1%
xG (showing): VVV-Venlo 1.37 — Oud-Heverlee Leuven II 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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