Chrobry Głogów vs Ślęza Wrocław Statistics & Analysis

Chrobry Głogów

Jul 18, 2026 - 15:30

1 1.41

2 1.19

xG Accuracy: 72%

Ślęza Wrocław

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Chrobry Głogów Ślęza Wrocław ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 09:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2983093

Closing Odds 1.5

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Ślęza Wrocław win · Chrobry Głogów 1–2 Ślęza Wrocław

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 2.92 percentage points on Chrobry Głogów (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 16.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Chrobry Głogów (1X2)	40.5	59.1	-18.6
Draw (1X2)	29.4	22.0	+7.4
Ślęza Wrocław (1X2)	30.1	18.9	+11.2
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	64.8	-16.6
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	35.2	+16.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 35.2%. The difference — about 16.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Chrobry Głogów (1X2)	1.43	1.5	-2.9
Draw (1X2)	4.3	4.03	+1.4
Ślęza Wrocław (1X2)	5.1	4.68	+1.6
Over 2.5 goals	1.39	1.41	-0.8
Under 2.5 goals	2.65	2.59	+0.8

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Club Friendlies
Fixture: Chrobry Głogów vs Ślęza Wrocław
Kickoff: 2026-07-18 15:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
xG (showing): Chrobry Głogów 1.41 — Ślęza Wrocław 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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