Bedford Town vs Berkhamsted Statistics & Analysis

Bedford Town

Jul 11, 2026 - 14:00

2 1.32

0 1.28

xG Accuracy: 58%

Berkhamsted

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Bedford Town Bedford Town ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 18:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2056647

Closing Odds 1.65

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Bedford Town win · Bedford Town 2–0 Berkhamsted

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 3.5 percentage points on Bedford Town (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE5.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 17.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Bedford Town (1X2)	43.1	54.4	-11.3
Draw (1X2)	26.9	19.0	+7.9
Berkhamsted (1X2)	30.0	26.6	+3.5
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	65.3	-17.1
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	34.7	+17.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 34.7%. The difference — about 17.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)	Implied Δ (pp)
Bedford Town (1X2)	1.53	1.65	-3.5
Draw (1X2)	4.88	4.73	+0.8
Berkhamsted (1X2)	3.71	3.38	+2.7
Over 2.5 goals	1.38	1.41	-0.8
Under 2.5 goals	2.69	2.65	+0.8

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Friendlies Clubs
Fixture: Bedford Town vs Berkhamsted
Kickoff: 2026-07-11 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 43.1% · Draw 26.9% · Away 30.0%
xG (showing): Bedford Town 1.32 — Berkhamsted 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 34.2% · Probability edge: +17.6 pts · Est. EV: +42.4%
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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