Austria Salzburg vs Wacker Burghausen Statistics & Analysis

Austria Salzburg

Jul 11, 2026 - 13:30

2 1.19

0 1.41

xG Accuracy: 54%

Wacker Burghausen

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Wacker Burghausen Austria Salzburg ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 17:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2996209

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Austria Salzburg win · Austria Salzburg 2–0 Wacker Burghausen

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Friendlies Clubs
Fixture: Austria Salzburg vs Wacker Burghausen
Kickoff: 2026-07-11 13:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 30.1% · Draw 29.4% · Away 40.5%
xG (showing): Austria Salzburg 1.19 — Wacker Burghausen 1.41 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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