Grenoble vs Bourg-en-bresse 01 Statistics & Analysis

Grenoble

Jul 11, 2026 - 15:00

0 1.24

0 1.36

xG Accuracy: 49%

Bourg-en-bresse 01

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Grenoble Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 15:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1610226

Closing Odds 1.51

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Grenoble 0–0 Bourg-en-bresse 01

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Bourg-en-bresse 01 (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Bourg-en-bresse 01 (1X2) by about 13.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Grenoble (1X2)	40.5	58.8	-18.4
Draw (1X2)	28.4	23.8	+4.6
Bourg-en-bresse 01 (1X2)	31.1	17.4	+13.8
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	48.8	-0.6
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	51.2	+0.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 31.1% on Bourg-en-bresse 01 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 17.4%. The difference — about 13.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Grenoble (1X2)	1.51	1.51
Draw (1X2)	3.73	3.73
Bourg-en-bresse 01 (1X2)	5.12	5.12
Over 2.5 goals	1.9	1.9
Under 2.5 goals	1.81	1.81

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Friendlies Clubs
Fixture: Grenoble vs Bourg-en-bresse 01
Kickoff: 2026-07-11 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 28.4% · Away 31.1%
xG (showing): Grenoble 1.24 — Bourg-en-bresse 01 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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