Statistics / Football / Hungary. NB I / Paks vs MTK Budapest

Paks vs MTK Budapest Statistics & Analysis

Paks Paks
Oct 10, 2026 - 17:30
3 1.38
0 1.20
xG Accuracy: 46%
MTK Budapest MTK Budapest
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Paks Paks ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 04:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13247156

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Paks win · Paks 3–0 MTK Budapest
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: NB I
  • Fixture: Paks vs MTK Budapest
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.2% · Draw 27.5% · Away 30.4%
  • xG (showing): Paks 1.38 — MTK Budapest 1.2 (total xG ≈ 2.58)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 52.3% · Implied: 27.2% · Probability edge: +25.1 pts · Est. EV: +88.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
NB I NB I — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gyori ETO FC 8 4 3 1 15
2 Puskas Academy 8 5 0 3 15
3 Vasas 8 4 2 2 14
4 Ujpest 8 4 2 2 14
5 Ferencvarosi TC 7 3 3 1 12
6 Paks 8 3 2 3 11
7 MTK Budapest 8 2 3 3 9
8 Kisvarda FC 8 2 3 3 9
9 Debreceni VSC 8 2 3 3 9
10 Nyiregyhaza 8 2 2 4 8
11 Budapest Honved 7 1 3 3 6
12 Zalaegerszegi TE 8 2 0 6 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vasas 8 17 11 +6 14
2 Ujpest 8 17 13 +4 14
3 Gyori ETO FC 8 16 10 +6 15
4 Paks 8 16 17 -1 11
5 MTK Budapest 8 15 14 +1 9
6 Puskas Academy 8 13 10 +3 15
7 Debreceni VSC 8 12 15 -3 9
8 Ferencvarosi TC 7 11 8 +3 12
9 Budapest Honved 7 11 14 -3 6
10 Kisvarda FC 8 9 10 -1 9
11 Nyiregyhaza 8 9 14 -5 8
12 Zalaegerszegi TE 8 7 17 -10 6
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Paks 8 2.4 0.5 +1.9 11
2 Vasas 8 1.6 0.5 +1.1 14
3 Ferencvarosi TC 7 1.7 1.6 +0.1 12
4 Debreceni VSC 8 1.6 1.7 -0.1 9
5 Kisvarda FC 8 0.5 1.6 -1.1 9
6 MTK Budapest 8 0.5 2.4 -1.9 9
7 Gyori ETO FC 8 — — — 15
8 Puskas Academy 8 — — — 15
9 Ujpest 8 — — — 14
10 Nyiregyhaza 8 — — — 8
11 Budapest Honved 7 — — — 6
12 Zalaegerszegi TE 8 — — — 6
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