Statistics / Football / Hungary. NB I / Debreceni VSC vs Vasas

Debreceni VSC vs Vasas Statistics & Analysis

Debreceni VSC Debreceni VSC
Sep 19, 2026 - 17:30
2 1.40
4 1.20
xG Accuracy: 39%
Vasas Vasas
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Debreceni VSC Vasas ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 03:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8705970

Closing Odds 2.69
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Vasas win · Debreceni VSC 2–4 Vasas
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 12.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Debreceni VSC (1X2) 40.0 39.6 +0.3
Draw (1X2) 29.5 25.0 +4.5
Vasas (1X2) 30.6 35.4 -4.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 61.0 -12.8
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 39.0 +12.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 39.0%. The difference — about 12.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Debreceni VSC (1X2) 2.4 2.4 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.81 3.81 0.0
Vasas (1X2) 2.69 2.69 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.56 1.56 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.44 2.44 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: NB I
  • Fixture: Debreceni VSC vs Vasas
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 30.6%
  • xG (showing): Debreceni VSC 1.4 — Vasas 1.2 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 39.3% · Probability edge: +12.5 pts · Est. EV: +26.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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NB I NB I — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gyori ETO FC 8 4 3 1 15
2 Puskas Academy 8 5 0 3 15
3 Vasas 8 4 2 2 14
4 Ujpest 8 4 2 2 14
5 Ferencvarosi TC 7 3 3 1 12
6 Paks 8 3 2 3 11
7 MTK Budapest 8 2 3 3 9
8 Kisvarda FC 8 2 3 3 9
9 Debreceni VSC 8 2 3 3 9
10 Nyiregyhaza 8 2 2 4 8
11 Budapest Honved 7 1 3 3 6
12 Zalaegerszegi TE 8 2 0 6 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vasas 8 17 11 +6 14
2 Ujpest 8 17 13 +4 14
3 Gyori ETO FC 8 16 10 +6 15
4 Paks 8 16 17 -1 11
5 MTK Budapest 8 15 14 +1 9
6 Puskas Academy 8 13 10 +3 15
7 Debreceni VSC 8 12 15 -3 9
8 Ferencvarosi TC 7 11 8 +3 12
9 Budapest Honved 7 11 14 -3 6
10 Kisvarda FC 8 9 10 -1 9
11 Nyiregyhaza 8 9 14 -5 8
12 Zalaegerszegi TE 8 7 17 -10 6
NB I Hungary. NB I Predictions