Statistics / Football / Hungary. NB I / MTK Budapest vs Kisvarda FC

MTK Budapest vs Kisvarda FC Statistics & Analysis

MTK Budapest MTK Budapest
Sep 05, 2026 - 15:30
1 1.38
2 1.22
xG Accuracy: 73%
Kisvarda FC Kisvarda FC
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 MTK Budapest Kisvarda FC ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 03:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6159990

Closing Odds 1.85
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Kisvarda FC win · MTK Budapest 1–2 Kisvarda FC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Kisvarda FC (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 11.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
MTK Budapest (1X2) 39.0 51.3 -12.3
Draw (1X2) 29.5 24.3 +5.2
Kisvarda FC (1X2) 31.5 24.4 +7.1
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 59.2 -11.0
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 40.8 +11.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 40.8%. The difference — about 11.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
MTK Budapest (1X2) 1.85 1.85 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.9 3.9 0.0
Kisvarda FC (1X2) 3.89 3.89 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.61 1.61 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.34 2.34 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: NB I
  • Fixture: MTK Budapest vs Kisvarda FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
  • xG (showing): MTK Budapest 1.38 — Kisvarda FC 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 41.1% · Probability edge: +10.7 pts · Est. EV: +21.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
NB I NB I — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gyori ETO FC 7 3 3 1 12
2 Puskas Academy 7 4 0 3 12
3 Vasas 7 3 2 2 11
4 Ujpest 7 3 2 2 11
5 Ferencvarosi TC 6 3 2 1 11
6 MTK Budapest 7 2 3 2 9
7 Kisvarda FC 7 2 3 2 9
8 Debreceni VSC 7 2 3 2 9
9 Paks 7 2 2 3 8
10 Nyiregyhaza 7 2 1 4 7
11 Budapest Honved 6 1 3 2 6
12 Zalaegerszegi TE 7 2 0 5 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Ujpest 7 15 12 +3 11
2 Paks 7 15 17 -2 8
3 Gyori ETO FC 7 14 9 +5 12
4 MTK Budapest 7 14 12 +2 9
5 Vasas 7 13 9 +4 11
6 Ferencvarosi TC 6 10 7 +3 11
7 Puskas Academy 7 10 9 +1 12
8 Debreceni VSC 7 10 11 -1 9
9 Budapest Honved 6 10 11 -1 6
10 Kisvarda FC 7 9 9 0 9
11 Nyiregyhaza 7 8 13 -5 7
12 Zalaegerszegi TE 7 6 15 -9 6
NB I Hungary. NB I Predictions