Statistics / Football / Hungary. NB I / Kisvarda FC vs Budapest Honved

Kisvarda FC vs Budapest Honved Statistics & Analysis

Kisvarda FC Kisvarda FC
Jul 25, 2026 - 17:30
1 1.30
1 1.30
xG Accuracy: 85%
Budapest Honved Budapest Honved
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Kisvarda FC Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1456718

Closing Odds 2.37
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Kisvarda FC 1–1 Budapest Honved
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Budapest Honved (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 2.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Kisvarda FC (1X2) 36.6 40.3 -3.6
Draw (1X2) 28.8 26.7 +2.1
Budapest Honved (1X2) 34.6 33.0 +1.6
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 50.4 -2.2
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 49.6 +2.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 49.6%. The difference — about 2.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Kisvarda FC (1X2) 2.37 2.37 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.57 3.57 0.0
Budapest Honved (1X2) 2.89 2.89 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.9 1.9 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.93 1.93 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Nemzeti Bajnokság I (NB I)
  • Fixture: Kisvárda FC vs Budapest Honvéd
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-25 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 28.8% · Away 34.6%
  • xG (showing): Kisvárda FC 1.3 — Budapest Honvéd 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.0%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
NB I NB I — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gyori ETO FC 7 3 3 1 12
2 Puskas Academy 7 4 0 3 12
3 Vasas 7 3 2 2 11
4 Ujpest 7 3 2 2 11
5 Ferencvarosi TC 6 3 2 1 11
6 MTK Budapest 7 2 3 2 9
7 Kisvarda FC 7 2 3 2 9
8 Debreceni VSC 7 2 3 2 9
9 Paks 7 2 2 3 8
10 Nyiregyhaza 7 2 1 4 7
11 Budapest Honved 6 1 3 2 6
12 Zalaegerszegi TE 7 2 0 5 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Ujpest 7 15 12 +3 11
2 Paks 7 15 17 -2 8
3 Gyori ETO FC 7 14 9 +5 12
4 MTK Budapest 7 14 12 +2 9
5 Vasas 7 13 9 +4 11
6 Ferencvarosi TC 6 10 7 +3 11
7 Puskas Academy 7 10 9 +1 12
8 Debreceni VSC 7 10 11 -1 9
9 Budapest Honved 6 10 11 -1 6
10 Kisvarda FC 7 9 9 0 9
11 Nyiregyhaza 7 8 13 -5 7
12 Zalaegerszegi TE 7 6 15 -9 6
NB I Hungary. NB I Predictions