Statistics / Football / Czech-Republic. Czech Liga / Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice

Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice Statistics & Analysis

Baník Ostrava Baník Ostrava
Sep 13, 2026 - 11:00
1 1.25
2 1.73
xG Accuracy: 87%
Pardubice Pardubice
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Pardubice Pardubice ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7425583

Closing Odds 1.97
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Pardubice win · Baník Ostrava 1–2 Pardubice
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Pardubice (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Pardubice (1X2) by about 15.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Baník Ostrava (1X2) 32.3 48.4 -16.1
Draw (1X2) 27.2 26.5 +0.8
Pardubice (1X2) 40.5 25.2 +15.3
Over 2.5 goals 57.2 53.0 +4.2
Under 2.5 goals 42.8 47.0 -4.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 40.5% on Pardubice (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 25.2%. The difference — about 15.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Baník Ostrava (1X2) 1.97 1.97 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.6 3.6 0.0
Pardubice (1X2) 3.78 3.78 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.8 1.8 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.03 2.03 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Czech Liga
  • Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.3% · Draw 27.3% · Away 40.5%
  • xG (showing): Baník Ostrava 1.25 — Pardubice 1.73 (total xG ≈ 2.98)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Pardubice
  • Model: 40.5% · Implied: 25.2% · Probability edge: +15.3 pts · Est. EV: +8.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Czech Liga Czech Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Slavia Praha 8 6 2 0 20
2 Slovan Liberec 8 6 1 1 19
3 Sigma Olomouc 8 5 1 2 16
4 Zbrojovka Brno 8 5 1 2 16
5 Mlada Boleslav 7 4 2 1 14
6 Hradec Králové 8 4 2 2 14
7 Teplice 8 4 1 3 13
8 FK Jablonec 8 4 1 3 13
9 Sparta Praha 8 4 0 4 12
10 Plzen 8 2 4 2 10
11 Bohemians 1905 7 2 3 2 9
12 Baník Ostrava 8 3 0 5 9
13 Pardubice 8 1 2 5 5
14 Líšeň 8 1 1 6 4
15 Slovácko 8 0 3 5 3
16 Zlin 8 0 0 8 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Slavia Praha 8 23 5 +18 20
2 Sigma Olomouc 8 16 10 +6 16
3 Plzen 8 16 15 +1 10
4 Mlada Boleslav 7 15 9 +6 14
5 Sparta Praha 8 15 12 +3 12
6 Teplice 8 15 15 0 13
7 Slovan Liberec 8 13 4 +9 19
8 Zbrojovka Brno 8 12 10 +2 16
9 FK Jablonec 8 10 8 +2 13
10 Hradec Králové 8 8 7 +1 14
11 Bohemians 1905 7 8 9 -1 9
12 Pardubice 8 7 13 -6 5
13 Líšeň 8 7 18 -11 4
14 Zlin 8 7 18 -11 0
15 Slovácko 8 5 14 -9 3
16 Baník Ostrava 8 5 15 -10 9
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Slavia Praha 8 13.9 6.4 +7.5 20
2 Slovan Liberec 8 10.9 6.6 +4.3 19
3 FK Jablonec 8 9.9 7.3 +2.6 13
4 Sparta Praha 8 11.4 9.6 +1.8 12
5 Hradec Králové 8 6.8 5.2 +1.6 14
6 Plzen 8 8.1 6.9 +1.2 10
7 Sigma Olomouc 8 7.6 6.4 +1.2 16
8 Pardubice 8 8.0 7.3 +0.7 5
9 Teplice 8 8.6 9.0 -0.4 13
10 Mlada Boleslav 7 9.8 10.8 -1.0 14
11 Zbrojovka Brno 8 5.2 6.3 -1.1 16
12 Bohemians 1905 7 5.9 8.0 -2.1 9
13 Líšeň 8 7.0 9.7 -2.7 4
14 Slovácko 8 5.7 9.7 -4.0 3
15 Baník Ostrava 8 8.2 12.9 -4.7 9
16 Zlin 8 5.8 10.8 -5.0 0
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