Statistics / Football / Czech-Republic. Czech Liga / Pardubice vs Mlada Boleslav

Pardubice vs Mlada Boleslav Statistics & Analysis

Pardubice Pardubice
Aug 15, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.24
1 1.41
xG Accuracy: 84%
Mlada Boleslav Mlada Boleslav
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Mlada Boleslav Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 02:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3358375

Closing Odds 2.25
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Pardubice 1–1 Mlada Boleslav
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Mlada Boleslav (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 7.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Pardubice (1X2) 31.4 42.5 -11.0
Draw (1X2) 29.2 25.6 +3.6
Mlada Boleslav (1X2) 39.4 31.9 +7.4
Over 2.5 goals 49.4 57.2 -7.8
Under 2.5 goals 50.6 42.8 +7.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 50.6% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 42.8%. The difference — about 7.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Pardubice (1X2) 2.25 2.25 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.73 3.73 0.0
Mlada Boleslav (1X2) 2.99 2.99 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.67 1.67 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.23 2.23 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Czech Liga
  • Fixture: Pardubice vs Mlada Boleslav
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 39.4%
  • xG (showing): Pardubice 1.24 — Mlada Boleslav 1.41 (total xG ≈ 2.65)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 50.6% · Implied: 43.1% · Probability edge: +7.5 pts · Est. EV: +14.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Czech Liga Czech Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Slavia Praha 9 7 2 0 23
2 Slovan Liberec 9 6 2 1 20
3 Mlada Boleslav 8 5 2 1 17
4 Sigma Olomouc 9 5 1 3 16
5 Teplice 9 5 1 3 16
6 Zbrojovka Brno 9 5 1 3 16
7 Sparta Praha 9 5 0 4 15
8 FK Jablonec 9 4 2 3 14
9 Hradec Králové 9 4 2 3 14
10 Plzen 9 2 4 3 10
11 Baník Ostrava 9 3 1 5 10
12 Bohemians 1905 8 2 3 3 9
13 Pardubice 9 2 2 5 8
14 Líšeň 9 1 2 6 5
15 Slovácko 9 0 4 5 4
16 Zlin 9 0 1 8 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Slavia Praha 9 25 6 +19 23
2 Sparta Praha 9 18 12 +6 15
3 Mlada Boleslav 8 17 9 +8 17
4 Teplice 9 17 15 +2 16
5 Plzen 9 17 17 0 10
6 Sigma Olomouc 9 16 13 +3 16
7 Slovan Liberec 9 13 4 +9 20
8 Zbrojovka Brno 9 12 12 0 16
9 FK Jablonec 9 11 9 +2 14
10 Bohemians 1905 8 9 11 -2 9
11 Pardubice 9 9 14 -5 8
12 Hradec Králové 9 8 9 -1 14
13 Zlin 9 8 19 -11 1
14 Slovácko 9 7 16 -9 4
15 Baník Ostrava 9 7 17 -10 10
16 Líšeň 9 7 18 -11 5
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Slavia Praha 9 15.5 7.2 +8.3 23
2 Slovan Liberec 9 11.4 7.2 +4.2 20
3 FK Jablonec 9 11.1 7.7 +3.4 14
4 Sparta Praha 9 13.3 10.4 +2.9 15
5 Hradec Králové 9 6.8 5.2 +1.6 14
6 Pardubice 9 8.9 8.2 +0.7 8
7 Plzen 9 8.9 8.4 +0.5 10
8 Zbrojovka Brno 9 7.6 7.3 +0.3 16
9 Sigma Olomouc 9 8.4 8.3 +0.1 16
10 Teplice 9 8.6 9.0 -0.4 16
11 Bohemians 1905 8 6.8 8.9 -2.1 9
12 Mlada Boleslav 8 10.8 13.2 -2.4 17
13 Líšeň 9 7.7 10.1 -2.4 5
14 Baník Ostrava 9 11.0 14.7 -3.7 10
15 Slovácko 9 7.5 12.4 -4.9 4
16 Zlin 9 6.1 11.9 -5.8 1