Statistics / Football / Czech-Republic. Czech Liga / Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové

Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové Statistics & Analysis

Bohemians 1905 Bohemians 1905
Aug 02, 2026 - 15:30
0 1.16
0 1.43
xG Accuracy: 49%
Hradec Králové Hradec Králové
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Hradec Králové Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 01:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1951329

Closing Odds 2.53
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Bohemians 1905 0–0 Hradec Králové
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.56 percentage points on Hradec Králové (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Hradec Králové (1X2) by about 4.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Bohemians 1905 (1X2) 31.5 37.8 -6.2
Draw (1X2) 29.0 27.5 +1.4
Hradec Králové (1X2) 39.5 34.7 +4.8
Over 2.5 goals 47.9 50.6 -2.8
Under 2.5 goals 52.1 49.4 +2.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 39.5% on Hradec Králové (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 34.7%. The difference — about 4.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Bohemians 1905 (1X2) 2.49 2.53 -0.5
Draw (1X2) 3.46 3.47 -0.0
Hradec Králové (1X2) 2.79 2.75 +0.6
Over 2.5 goals 1.89 1.89 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.94 1.94 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Czech Liga
  • Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-02 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.5% · Draw 29.0% · Away 39.5%
  • xG (showing): Bohemians 1905 1.16 — Hradec Králové 1.43 (total xG ≈ 2.59)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 52.1% · Implied: 49.2% · Probability edge: +2.9 pts · Est. EV: +3.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Czech Liga Czech Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Slavia Praha 9 7 2 0 23
2 Slovan Liberec 9 6 2 1 20
3 Mlada Boleslav 8 5 2 1 17
4 Sigma Olomouc 9 5 1 3 16
5 Teplice 9 5 1 3 16
6 Zbrojovka Brno 9 5 1 3 16
7 Sparta Praha 9 5 0 4 15
8 FK Jablonec 9 4 2 3 14
9 Hradec Králové 9 4 2 3 14
10 Plzen 9 2 4 3 10
11 Baník Ostrava 9 3 1 5 10
12 Bohemians 1905 8 2 3 3 9
13 Pardubice 9 2 2 5 8
14 Líšeň 9 1 2 6 5
15 Slovácko 9 0 4 5 4
16 Zlin 9 0 1 8 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Slavia Praha 9 25 6 +19 23
2 Sparta Praha 9 18 12 +6 15
3 Mlada Boleslav 8 17 9 +8 17
4 Teplice 9 17 15 +2 16
5 Plzen 9 17 17 0 10
6 Sigma Olomouc 9 16 13 +3 16
7 Slovan Liberec 9 13 4 +9 20
8 Zbrojovka Brno 9 12 12 0 16
9 FK Jablonec 9 11 9 +2 14
10 Bohemians 1905 8 9 11 -2 9
11 Pardubice 9 9 14 -5 8
12 Hradec Králové 9 8 9 -1 14
13 Zlin 9 8 19 -11 1
14 Slovácko 9 7 16 -9 4
15 Baník Ostrava 9 7 17 -10 10
16 Líšeň 9 7 18 -11 5
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Slavia Praha 9 15.5 7.2 +8.3 23
2 Slovan Liberec 9 11.4 7.2 +4.2 20
3 FK Jablonec 9 11.1 7.7 +3.4 14
4 Sparta Praha 9 13.3 10.4 +2.9 15
5 Hradec Králové 9 6.8 5.2 +1.6 14
6 Pardubice 9 8.9 8.2 +0.7 8
7 Plzen 9 8.9 8.4 +0.5 10
8 Zbrojovka Brno 9 7.6 7.3 +0.3 16
9 Sigma Olomouc 9 8.4 8.3 +0.1 16
10 Teplice 9 8.6 9.0 -0.4 16
11 Bohemians 1905 8 6.8 8.9 -2.1 9
12 Mlada Boleslav 8 10.8 13.2 -2.4 17
13 Líšeň 9 7.7 10.1 -2.4 5
14 Baník Ostrava 9 11.0 14.7 -3.7 10
15 Slovácko 9 7.5 12.4 -4.9 4
16 Zlin 9 6.1 11.9 -5.8 1