Malacateco vs Guastatoya Statistics & Analysis

Malacateco

Oct 11, 2026 - 01:00

2 1.25

0 1.35

xG Accuracy: 56%

Guastatoya

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Guastatoya Malacateco ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 00:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13184299

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Malacateco win · Malacateco 2–0 Guastatoya

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Liga Nacional
Fixture: Malacateco vs Guastatoya
Kickoff: 2026-10-11 01:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
xG (showing): Malacateco 1.25 — Guastatoya 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.5% · Implied: 45.9% · Probability edge: +8.6 pts · Est. EV: +9.6%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Malacateco & Guastatoya!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics