Deportivo San Pedro vs Comunicaciones Statistics & Analysis

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Deportivo San Pedro

Oct 11, 2026 - 21:00

2 1.30

1 1.30

xG Accuracy: 76%

Comunicaciones

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Deportivo San Pedro Deportivo San Pedro ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13238866

Closing Odds 2.17

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Deportivo San Pedro win · Deportivo San Pedro 2–1 Comunicaciones

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 4.62 percentage points on Comunicaciones (1X2) between PRE20 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Comunicaciones (1X2) by about 5.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Deportivo San Pedro (1X2)	35.2	43.1	-8.0
Draw (1X2)	29.6	27.5	+2.1
Comunicaciones (1X2)	35.2	29.3	+5.8

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 35.2% on Comunicaciones (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 29.3%. The difference — about 5.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: melbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE20)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Deportivo San Pedro (1X2)	2.0	2.17	-2.0
Draw (1X2)	2.99	3.4	-2.6
Comunicaciones (1X2)	3.65	3.19	+4.6

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Liga Nacional
Fixture: Deportivo San Pedro vs Comunicaciones
Kickoff: 2026-10-11 21:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
xG (showing): Deportivo San Pedro 1.3 — Comunicaciones 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.5% · Implied: 47.5% · Probability edge: +7.0 pts · Est. EV: +6.3%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 12, 2026 (UTC)

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