Khangarid vs Ulaanbaatar Statistics & Analysis

Khangarid

Jul 03, 2026 - 11:00

3 1.38

4 1.22

xG Accuracy: 30%

Ulaanbaatar

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Ulaanbaatar Ulaanbaatar ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1451723

Closing Odds 1.66

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Ulaanbaatar win · Khangarid 3–4 Ulaanbaatar

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Khangarid (1X2), Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Khangarid (1X2) by about 8.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Khangarid (1X2)	35.0	26.8	+8.2
Draw (1X2)	27.8	19.8	+8.0
Ulaanbaatar (1X2)	37.2	53.4	-16.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 35.0% on Khangarid (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 26.8%. The difference — about 8.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Khangarid (1X2)	3.31	3.31
Draw (1X2)	4.49	4.49
Ulaanbaatar (1X2)	1.66	1.66

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Premier League
Fixture: Khangarid vs Ulaanbaatar
Kickoff: 2026-07-03 11:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.0% · Draw 27.8% · Away 37.2%
xG (showing): Khangarid 1.38 — Ulaanbaatar 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.1%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Ulaanbaatar	16	13	2	1	41
2	Tuv Azarganuud	16	12	3	1	39
3	Khangarid	16	10	3	3	33
4	Deren	16	9	3	4	30
5	Hunters	16	7	3	6	24
6	Khovd Western	16	5	3	8	18
7	Khovd	16	4	0	12	12
8	Khoromkhon	16	2	0	14	6
9	Ulaangom City	16	1	1	14	4
10	Falcons	0	0	0	0	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Ulaanbaatar	16	65	9	+56	41
2	Khangarid	16	59	19	+40	33
3	Deren	16	57	16	+41	30
4	Tuv Azarganuud	16	54	14	+40	39
5	Hunters	16	44	27	+17	24
6	Khovd Western	16	29	36	-7	18
7	Khovd	16	28	73	-45	12
8	Khoromkhon	16	27	86	-59	6
9	Ulaangom City	16	16	99	-83	4
10	Falcons	0	0	0	0	0